It’s been a fun two weeks of humorous “forecasts”, biding time until the snow returns again. Well, here we go – two good storms coming up over the next four days. Let’s get right to it!
Before we move on, check out two new pieces of awesomeness on the www.ColoradoPowderForecast.com website:
- The “Keep Me Honest” page is up. I currently show my forecast accuracy from 168 days during the 2008-2009 season, and starting next week I’ll begin to grade this year’s forecast. HEY! You. Yes you. If you think my forecast was noteworthy (for being great, crappy, or somehow in between), let me know in the COMMENTS to this post.
- I added an “Education” page. Why? Because you want to learn more about weather (at least enough to figure out where the snow is), and I love to teach and share knowledge. Skim the 1-pager with tips and tricks to find the deep snow, or spend some time with the full presentation.
Forecast
Yes! Two GOOD storms coming in between now and Sunday. The first storm is Thursday night through Friday, and with much of the moisture shipped in all the way from Hawaii, this will be a relatively warm and heavy storm.
Snow will start around sunset Thursday night north of I-70 around Steamboat and the Flattops and spread south overnight. By Friday, most areas along and south of I-70 could see some snow, with a mix of rain and snow edging over the mountains onto the eastern plains near and north of Denver. An interesting aspect of this first storm is that the Jet Stream will spark some heavier snow along a line from southwest to northeast. Where exactly this line sets up will determine who gets the most pow. At this point, the Elk mountains look like a good bet, but almost anywhere from Montrose on through Summit Co. could see surprisingly high amounts if this band sets up over their area. Snow amounts should be 6-12″ around Steamboat, the Flattops, and Elks, and the southwestern areas of the San Juans. Unless the heavier snow band helps out, I don’t see a lot of snow for Vail or Summit Co.
The next storm comes in on Saturday through Sunday evening. This storm is taking a similar path to the big October 27-29 storm, but this storm is weaker and a little faster. Still, the effects of the storm could be similar – hit or miss good snows west of the divide (a few inches to a foot) with the biggest totals east of the divide. This storm should be colder than the Thursday>Friday storm, so the snow will be lighter. We’ll start to clear out later on Sunday into next week.
- Thursday 11/12: Mostly cloudy and very windy in the western 1/2 of the state. Winds could gust over 40mph, and higher above treeline. Snow will start in the northwest areas around sunset and spread south over night.
- Friday 11/13: Heavy snow develops in a southwest-to-northeast band. It seems likely that the Elk Mountains will do the best, with 12″+ possible by Friday night. Steamboat and the San Juans should come in second place to the Elks, with 6-12″. Vail, Summit Co., and the Continental Divide will do OK, but likely just a few inches EXCEPT where the heavy snow band sets up, which could bring a lot more snow. A cold front moves through the Denver area by sunrise Friday morning, yielding a cold day with some snow/rain possible on the plains (better shot at snow in the heavier band or higher in elevation). Snow tapers off by Friday evening for most areas.
- Saturday 11/14: Saturday will start out rather calm, but the second storm will quickly envelop the state. Snow will be hit-or-miss west of the divide Saturday into Saturday night, with the better chance of good snow shifting east of the divide Saturday night. Mountains west of the divide could get 6″ of snow or more with much cooler temperatures, but again – the snow will be pretty hit or miss.
- Sunday 11/15: The best chance for good snow looks like it will be east of the divide. The foothills could get some big amounts…BUT, this storm is still 3-4 days away, and the models do NOT have a good handle on it. It’s a wait and see game…should be able to make a better call by Friday.
- Monday 11/16: The snow will generally be over except for a few clouds lingering on the peaks. Much of the state will be covered in snow as we’ll see from the first cloud-free satellite images available since Wednesday. Generally, a pretty nice day and seasonably cool.
- Tuesday 11/17: Warming a few degrees from Monday, and mostly sunny.
- Wednesday 11/18: Some more clouds might head back into the state as a new storm moves off the Pacific. This is a long way out, though…just focus on this weekend’s storms first!
Weather Image: 3-Storm Squeeze
Our two storms in four days are really three storms in four days. The first storm on Thursday and Friday is really coming in two pieces. The first piece (1) will kick things off Thursday night, but quickly head into the northern plains. Just in time, more energy from the Pacific (2) will crank the snow machine through Friday. And on the heels of (2) comes (3), barreling down from the Pacific Northwest in time to make our weekend interesting. Good stuff!
Cloud seeding = The NBA (lots of hype but not convincing)
Every year, we hear about new cloud seeding work that supposedly increases snowfall. Here is the latest article about seeding efforts near Winter Park, CO and Vail, CO.
“Vail still claims that the cloud seeding produces 8 to 25 percent deeper snowfall than other Colorado ski areas”
I’d love to know how they come up with these numbers. 10% of an average 350″ year is about 35″. Spread over 20-30 storms per year, that’s about 1-2″ of “extra” snow per storm due to the seeding. With the inherent inaccuracy of measuring snow (let’s face it…nature is a little crazy…snow doesn’t fall in a perfect blanket), I’d say it would be hard to determine that an extra inch or two fell per storm due to cloud seeding.
Where does this leave us? With the NBA, of course! Why? Because both cloud seeding and the NBA superstars are capable of great things, but I believe that we get more hype than actual “great things” from both cloud seeding and the NBA highly-paid players. As for seeding, the science behind the process is sound…but how do we know that extra inch on an eight inch storm is from seeding versus a local wind pattern around Vail?
At least one thing is certain: the cost of the seeding program can double as an advertising expense, since seeding articles always pop up this time of year. As for the NBA superstars, I’d like to see their salary go towards a full-out effort for 48 minutes, not just for the last 30 seconds every quarter.
That’s it – my rant is complete. Enjoy the snow!
I occasionally check other weather sites, for a second opinion, but rarely are they different from your forecast, and never are they better. You are definitely the source for powder forecasts. Thanks!
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Since there are no comments currently, I simply couldn’t resist the opportunity to be ’special’ and leave the first one. This need stems from the fact that I have a twin brother and therefore was somewhat attention starved throughout my childhood.
On that note, I have nothing noteworthy to contribute–other than I love Joel Gratz. And also find the NBA to be, well, useless. More of a circus than a sport (have you been to a game, lately? good lord….).
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Thanks Nate. I don’t usually go out on a limb but do try to add some detail and color to the standard forecast.
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Great!
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You’ll know that cloud seeding works if they alternate storms when they seed and don’t seed. If they have clear statistical evidence (3-5 sigma, with proper consideration of backgrounds) that it works, then odds are good that it works! Bonus points for using two nearby ski areas and alternating which one gets seeded with each storm.
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