I was hoping for 60″ in yesterday’s update, but I’ll take the 45″ that fell so far at Wolf Creek! Quite a few folks headed down there today to get after it!
Tooting my own horn is not something that I usually do. But since this was a very big storm for Colorado, I wanted to take a look back and see how well I did.
Others over-forecasting for I-70
Five days ago on December 3rd, I forecasted heavy snow for areas from Aspen on south, with the best snow for the I-70 resorts waiting until Tuesday with only 6″ in these areas, up to 12″ if really lucky. As late as last night, The National Weather Service was instead calling for 14-28″ for Vail’s summit on Monday and Tuesday (thanks to some posters on the Teton Gravity Research forum for archiving the forecast). How did it turn out? The resorts along I-70 didn’t see heavy snow until this (Tuesday) morning, and accumulations will likely be around 6″, maybe up to double digits if they are lucky. I hate to be the “hater”, but these southwest storms don’t hit the I-70 resorts too well, and they do it later than expected. One point for Joel.
San Juan dumpage
On a more snowy note, my forecasts for Aspen on south were just about right. In the San Juans, I said 20-30″, which is looking good with Silverton’s 34″ and Telluride inching over 15″ at Mountain Village. Also, the SNOTEL sites down there show about 20-30″, with about a 10:1 snow-to-liquid ratio. A bit heavy for Colorado, but still about right for this type of moist, Pacific storm. Of course, Wolf Creek’s 44″ blew everyone else away, but I talked about this as well. One point for Joel.
Aspen & Crested Butte
Aspen is now reporting about a foot of snow, and Crested Butte is reporting about 18″, right in line with my predictions of 10-20″. And they may get a little more snow before it’s over. One point for Joel.
Southern Roads Close
Hopefully Wolf Creek Pass and U.S. 550 down in the San Juans open up later today. If you stopped by yesterday, you would have seen that I predicted these roads to close by Monday night. One point for Joel.
Enjoy the snow! And a bit more is on the way for the weekend…
Total score for this storm: Joel = 4 pts. If I were a credit card, this is enough points for 4/25,000th of a free flight! I knew this website would pay off eventually:-)
Finally, an accurate and UNBIASED source for snow forecasting in CO… I think someone needs to make a phone call or two and tell the folks at the NWS to get their heads out of there asses. Thanks Joel!
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Good job with the forecasts. FYI, in Eagle (elev. 6600) we’ve had about 10 inches of snow from this storm while the nearby ski areas (Vail and BC) have only had about 6 inches. This is not uncommon for us in these southern storms, although it does nothing for the skiing.
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Justin – thanks much. The NWS does a good job generally, but for some reason overforecasting for the I-70 resorts happens every year. Just happy it’s snowing!
Tom – thanks for reporting in! Eagle and Gypsum have less of a downslope wind with a southwest flow compared to Vail/Beaver Creek which gets better downslope from the Holy Cross and NY Mtn areas. Since downslope kills snow, it makes sense that Eagles gets decent snow in the southern storms.
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15-24″ up above CB on Mt Emmons this AM! Too Deep to Ski!!…mainly because we are confined to low angle slopes while this high avy danger plays out……
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Thanks for the report, Wick! Hopefully you’ll get some visibility tomorrow to see what’s what. Little or no more snow expected in CB Wed-Fri, so avy danger should slooowly decrease…
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Thanks Joel! We’re having a fabulous time in Crested Butte with all the snow!!! and still snowing!
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Joel, Bring some of that magic snow to the East! We here in Stowe, VT are off to a late start but winter seems to finally be getting under way. Will this storm tomorrow bring sleet or snow? I hereby request for all East Coast skiers that Joel Gratz also covers Vermont!
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Donny – my friends back east can be found at http://www.famousinternetskiers.com They’re no Joel Gratz, but they know the area and made some pre-season turns at Stowe last week. Give it a look see!
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