Headaches and confusion (i.e. “The Hangover“) still plague the computer weather models after Sunday & Monday’s big storm. The models actually did rather well on that storm, and I made an accurate forecast for Sunday and Monday’s powder day. Recently, a few inches fell on Wednesday night through Thursday night for Summit Co. and Winter Park, but that’s about done for now. Looking forward, the models are struggling to figure out what winter will throw at us next. Here’s the scoop on the forecast, and also about a new local beer that literally has the weather baked in.
Model Hangover
The next chance for substantial snow in the Colorado mountains will be around next Tuesday or Wednesday, hopefully just in time for Christmas. But there’s a problem with this storm – I can’t give you any more details because the computer models can’t seem to shake off the hangover from the last storm. Below are the three major long-range computer weather models, and their varying forecasts for next Wednesday. The Canadian model is slow, the European model is a little far east, and the American model looks the snowiest of all (especially for the central mountains around Powderhorn/Sunlight/Aspen/Crested Butte/Monarch). What model should you trust? It depends on what you like best: Canadian bacon, French fries, or “Freedom” fries. Sorry to offer more excuses than details in this forecast, but at least I’m honest, yes? If you want me to guess, I think a blend of the American and European models will be most likely.
Forecast
- Friday: Light snow in the higher elevations along and north of I-70 and along the continental divide. The snow won’t amount to much…and inch or two.
- Saturday: Party cloudy with normal to warm temperatures for late December.
- Sunday: Partly cloudy again with normal to warm temperatures.
- Monday: Mostly cloudy, perhaps some light snow moving in later in the day for the highest elevations of western Colorado.
- Tuesday: Snow likely for most mountain areas, with the best chance in the central mountains. Colder by nightfall, especially along and north of I-70. More details to come over the weekend as the models come out of their hangover.
- Wednesday: Best powder day. Snow hangs around for the front range peaks, northern, and central mountains. Again, more details to come.
- Thursday: Mostly sunny skies return and the temperature warm back to near normal.
Upslope Brewing
Drinking the weather never tasted so good. Founder Matt Cutter told us (a bunch of Boulder meteorologists) the story of Upslope’s creation in 2008, took us through their brewery in North Boulder, and gave us the secret about their $3/pint special in the tap room when there is an upslope (wind from the east) storm. Feel free to stop by, or head to one of these front range liquor stores to get some cans. Yes, I said cans. Matt is an avid skier and mentioned that cans are the best – not only for beer freshness and environmental considerations, but also because their low weight makes it easier to stuff a few in the pack for a nice afternoon at the hut or in the backcountry.
Oh yeah, is the beer good? Yep! And they didn’t even pay me to say it:-) If you’re looking for a good activity in Boulder, stop by Wed-Sat from 4:00p-8:00p. Matt shares a great entrepreneurial story of always wanting to start a brewery, and finally just “going for it”. Way to go, man. His passion for the business is palpable.
Praying for the American Model to pan out!
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If the Canadian Model holds true, who benefits? Looks like it’s heading right for Farmington, NM. –Parking lot tow-ins at the Walmart parking lot! I’m crossing my fingers the San Juans get another blast or a steady light and dry…Thanks, Joel.
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Prodigal Sun – Canadian looks a little further north, but would eventually hit Colorado (though likely not until Wed or Thurs). It’s the outlier right now…
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I personally like European models…
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Mas – couldn’t agree with you more!
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The CAIC is claiming more precip for the south come Wed., although their last post sounded a bit like circular reasoning; gave me a headache after reading it. I don’t want to sound biased, but 5″ new on 70″ base of natural might be better than 10″ on groomers, rock and grass still showing on each side the run. Why are the central mountains so jaded? El Nino?
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Looks like another “winner” for the southern mountains on Wednesday, and to a lesser degree the front range mtns. Central and northern mtns should get something, but it won’t be much. Tough to blame everything on El Nino, but a southern storm track is certainly more “normal” with El Nino.
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Thanks, Joel. Have a great Holiday!
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Snowed most of the day in Durango, we have gotten maybe 2-3 inches in town and im guessing 5-7 @ Purg, Wolf Creek ? probably gonna be deep tomorrow!!
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