Thumbs up (thanks Borat!) to powder and some TV coverage. First, thanks to you and the snow gods for the midweek successes:
- 11″ of snow in Breckenridge on Tuesday & Wednesday
- 8-10″ of snow in Winter Park and Steamboat
- 40,000+ pageviews for Colorado Powder Forecast in the last month
- 1,000+ people now on the Colorado Powder Forecast email list
- TV interview on CBS4 News in Denver about ski areas honestly reporting snow totals. A report from Dartmouth in 2009 shows that resorts report 23% more snow during the weekend compared to the week days. The researchers also say that the resorts report more snow than “nearby” government snow reporting sites, where “nearby” can mean within 25 miles (that’s too far away to compare). My response? I think the resorts do a pretty good job, and I say that after years of personally skiing many mountains and listening to people’s personal reports from the hill. I don’t think there’s much of a controversy here, and I’m glad the Denver Post and CBS4 News covered the Dartmouth report fairly. There CAN be large differences in snowfall over very short changes in distance and elevation – that’s just the name of the game when tracking snowfall in the mountains. Of course, if you think that you’ve been duped and there is less (or more?) snow than reported, let us know in the comments!
Forecast
It looks like a nice weekend to relax a bit and wake up late instead of chasing powder in the early AM. The next good chance of snow comes next Thursday.
- Friday: Sunny and dry, warmer.
- Saturday: Partly sunny and dry. More clouds and a light flurry later in the day, especially north of I-70.
- Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with flurries/light snow from Aspen and north. Maybe an inch or two at most; likely less.
- Monday: Partly sunny and dry.
- Tuesday: Partly sunny and dry.
- Wednesday: Increasing clouds with late day snow showers.
- Thursday: Chance of snow across the state…the storm looks weak but this is over a week away. Stay tuned!
Snow Totals Tue-Wed
The past storm came in about as forecast, but there were a few surprises. First, Breckenridge’s storm total of 11″ led the state – I thought that the leader would be Steamboat or Winter Park instead. Second, the very cold air that pushed the plains into the teens and single digits on Wednesday afternoon took its sweet old time pushing into the mountains from the north. It took almost until midnight Wednesday night for places along and south of I-70 to really cool down, and the coldest of the air never made it down to the San Juans. Here are the storm totals, as well as my forecast for verification (to “Keep me honest”).
| RESORT | TOTAL |
| Breckenridge | 11.00 |
| Winter Park | 9.10 |
| Steamboat | 9.00 |
| Eldora | 8.50 |
| Copper | 6.00 |
| Loveland | 6.00 |
| Vail | 6.00 |
| Cooper | 5.00 |
| Echo | 5.00 |
| Abasin | 4.25 |
| Keystone | 4.00 |
| Aspen Highlands | 3.00 |
| Beaver Creek | 3.00 |
| Snowmass | 3.00 |
| Aspen Mountain | 2.00 |
| Buttermilk | 2.00 |
| Crested Butte | 2.00 |
| Monarch | 0.50 |
| Sunlight | 0.50 |
| Durango | 0.00 |
| Powderhorn | 0.00 |
| Silverton | 0.00 |
| Telluride | 0.00 |
| Wolf Creek | 0.00 |
One thing not mentioned in these arguments about snow totals, they are 24 hour totals. If it snows a foot during the day while people are skiing it, it is a whole lot different than if it snows a foot overnight and not getting tracked out. In WA, where I spent a few years, they were very good about posting a afternoon report to clarify what fell during the day and what fell overnight. Makes a lot more sense and prevents the disappointment of showing up to your mountain expecting pow and getting PP.
[Reply]
Joel,
I am an infomaniac! Thanks for this site – most accurate Colorado snow forecast on the net! Thinking about next week and a day at Vail – do you think Friday is the better day?
[Reply]
On Thursday morning at Breck I snagged 2nd chair of the day on Imperial in front of about 100 people waiting in line and had first descent of the bowl – it was phenomenal, with creamy not-yet-condensed wind-blown powder on top of fresh powder.
[Reply]
Thursday at WP was very nice! My first true powder day of the season. Joel pegged that storm!
[Reply]
Not much snow this year in aspen snowmass
[Reply]
Michael – Good point about snow totals AFTER close. I know Steamboat gives the amount of snow that fell after close, but you have to CALL their snow report to get this information.
[Reply]
Tony Clapp – thanks for the compliment! I think Thurs or Fri next week will be the best chance for some powder at Vail. If you want sun and warmth, Mon or Tue should do the trick.
[Reply]
Josh – excellent report from Breck. Glad you were out there first!
[Reply]
Mike – Happy to hear the good news…I always like it when a forecast comes together!
[Reply]
ryanboudreau – yes, Aspen hasn’t received much snow lately, but the Independence Pass SNOTEL is about 100% of average snow water equivalent, and the Schofield Pass SNOTEL is about 105% of normal. Points to the success of early season storms…
[Reply]
Who’s the hottie in the pictures?
[Reply]
Hey Joel.
I enjoy your forecasts. With el niño strengthening and the pattern shifting to the south after next week do you see anything positive for the vail area?
[Reply]
Bill – great question. The pattern change I see coming up after about January 20th would favor more southern storms. Of course, little changes in storm paths can make for big changes in expected snowfall, so even with some southern storms, the Vail area could still see some decent snow. Overall, El Nino typically means more storms like earlier this season (southern Colorado and Front Range favored).
[Reply]
One thing about 24 hr totals (the standard for recording snow totals), is the snow settles due to its low (4% – 5% average for colorado) density. While it may have snowed an actual 25″, hour by hour (read: while you were skiing). The 24 hr total might only read 12″ due to settlement(remember its 90% – 97% air). Thats why you always get more faceshots on the storm day than on the next bluebird day. So stock up on warm clothes, low light goggles and have more fun!
[Reply]
Where in CO can you find hourly updates on mountain snow totals, wind direction/speed, temps at various elevations, etc…? NWAC in WA state posted 24/7 hourly updates on all the major ski mountains or drivable mountain passes. Thought CAIC might, but haven’t found it. Invaluable resource for WA, but haven’t found it here. Love the blog Joel, keep it up!
[Reply]
First of all its Dartmouth College, not university like the video says. Second, the point of the study is not that resorts are reporting more than outlying areas, but that resorts are reporting more on weekend days than on weekdays. The theory is they are shaving a few inches during the week and throwing them on the weekend days to get people up to the mountains, while preserving the correct total amount. The study also shows that this discrepancy has gone down since people started using iPhones to say what was really happening.
[Reply]
@RadioactiveMan
Perhaps this is what you are looking for…these wx stations are certainly prone to technical difficulties, but a good resource nonetheless.
they should be available via the CAIC website, but it might be hidden
http://www.avalanche.org/~wxstns/grandnet/
I found it on CAIC, too
here is the link for the CAIC version- same info, just prettier:
http://avalanche.state.co.us/obs_stns/stns.php
[Reply]
@ Brian:
Thanks!
[Reply]