The waiting game is almost over as snow is coming next week. To prepare, let’s talk cheap deals and <gasp> climate change.
First off, I apologize. Yep, you just read that a meteorologist apologized. Did hell freeze over? Nope, but yesterday’s weak “snowstorm” turned out to be a “no-storm” and headed down into ‘old Mexico’, which meant no snow for Colorado (except for a dusting in Silverton). Remember, you can keep track of my accuracy on the Keep me Honest part of the website.
Don’t lose hope, though, as not even Obama can generate the kind of hope contained in this forecast. Yep, after 10-14 days of dry weather, nature’s snow machine will crank back into action for Colorado. The forecast is below, as are some great deals and a brief thought on Climate Change from yours truly.
[After Tuesday's review of two iPhone Apps, an astute reader pointed out two other useful apps that I fully endorse. The first is Advanced Level and Inclinometer {iTunes Link, $0.99}, which measures the slope angle and worked well when I compared it to an actual physical inclinometer. The second is MotionX GPS LTE {iTunes Link, FREE}, which is a great little GPS program. Upgrade to the full version for $2.99.]
Forecast
Snow returns next week, favoring the southwestern mountains around Telluride, Silverton, and Wolf Creek. Other areas should see snow as well, but the details are still hard to place so stay tuned and I’ll update the forecast on Sunday or Monday when there is a little more certainty on where the flakes will fly!
- Friday: Mostly sunny and dry.
- Saturday: Mostly sunny and dry.
- Sunday: Partly sunny and dry.
- Monday: Increasing clouds later in the day, still dry.
- Tuesday: Light to moderate snow across the state, favoring the south.
- Wednesday: Better chance of a stronger storm, again favoring the south.
- Thursday: Perhaps a bit of a break from the snow, but an even strong storm likely for the weekend.
Great Deals
- Hanging out in Aspen for the X-games is always a blast. The games are January 28-31st, and Aspen is trying to get the younger crowd in town with a cheapo lift ticket deal. $87 gets you two days of riding between the 28th-31st if you have a valid college ID and are 24 or younger. Details and purchase online here (scroll down a bit).
- Buy 10 gallons of gas at Shell stations and get a coupon for buy-1-get-1-free lift tickets at Copper, Winter Park, Monarch, or Powderhorn. There aren’t many blackout dates, but check this site for all the details.
If you know of other great deals, leave them in the comments!
Climate change
The Protect our Winters (POW) program is now based in Boulder. The organization is “…dedicated to reversing the global warming crisis by uniting the winter sports community…” Professional snowboarder Jeremy Jones started the group in 2007, and among many other worthwhile initiatives the group funded the short film “Generations“, produced by Teton Gravity Research.
As a meteorologist, many people ask my opinion about groups like POW and about Climate Change in general. My view about groups like POW is neutral – funding small, worthwhile renewable energy initiatives is good, but it’s not a magic bullet.
About climate change, I think the earth is warming and part of this warming is likely caused by us humans. HOWEVER, I do NOT agree with people who claim that they know EXACTLY how much humans have influenced the climate. I also do NOT agree with people who claim that they know EXACTLY how the climate will change in the future. What we don’t know about the climate is still a LOT, and this means that it’s impossible to know how much more or less snow Colorado might receive in 30 years, for example. Or more importantly, it’s impossible to know if we’ll have a critical shortage of water in the American west in the next 30 years.
To sum up, humans are likely altering the climate, and we should simultaneously try to reduce our vulnerability to climate change and figure out new energy sources to one day move toward a sustainable, non-poluting energy source.
If you want a very clear view on the subject in a 2-minute read, check out this piece by Thomas Friedman.
By Sunday or Monday, we’ll return to your regularly scheduled powder forecasts!
Thanks Joel. Its refreshing to hear a rational take on climate change rather than the usual bi-partisan shouting from both sides. On another note, ive been following some of the discussions over at the TGR forums on the long term weather patterns that are effecting the states due to El Nino(Spanish for…the Nino.) Have you discussed this in the past on your site? A discussion how this affects Colorado winters might make for an interesting post.
Keep up the good work!
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JG – thanks for your compliment. About “the nino”, it is usual during El Nino winters for more storms to track across the southwestern US. Based on this, our winter has been pretty “normal” so far. This southern storm track also helps to create snow along the urban corridor and the foothills from “wrap-around” upslope moisture (wind from the east). Again, this storm track has occurred during the 2009-2010 winter, so in the most part, our winter is progressing “as expected”.
However, it’s not all that usual for the Pacific Northwest (read: Whistler) to receive a lot of snow during El Nino winters, but it has happened this year.
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Joel – thanks for your comments on climate change. I’m wondering if you are talking about humans contributing to climate change in some way other than CO2 emissions? If we are going to try and change things by limiting CO2 emissions we are wasting our time… only 3.62% of greenhouse gases are CO2 (majority is water vapour), and only 3.4% of that 3.62% is created by humans (translates to 0.123% of total greenhouse gas). Of course we need to limit pollutants and find new sources of energy, but it sure seems like that is a whole different issue than climate change… and CO2 is not a pollutant any way. Here is a great presentaion:
http://api.ning.com/files/tK*zQ5BMfYxfAEAmTaR5zphHeb0cFXlAUPjButRVTvjyysaCMLEVok3Plz0wqAOVBqMyI*ed9O3LX0bfcTyj74erfR-2cPon/WhytheETSisUselessLeon.pdf
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If you are interested in the presentation I posted above copy and paste into your browser from http:// to end of text (.pdf). I don’t know why only part of the link is hyperlinked above. Happy reading!
Thanks for your great forecasts this year Joel!
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Joel, not gonna lie…was a little confused where you were coming up with your Thursday (chance for) snow given the overall pattern and the modelling. That being said, we meteorologists both take some and lose some, and you’ve been right when I’ve been wrong before
I don’t think we’re going to get back into a truly cold regime, and/or conducive to snowfall, again until the last few days of the month. Hope I’m wrong! 
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Global warming is a facade perpetuated upon us by the pro-government, anti-people agenda of the Democratic-scientific elite. You can’t expect us to continue swallowing this morally bankrupt agenda while people are losing their jobs daily.
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I think the amount that humans add global warming is trace at best. I think that data the people at the East Anglia CPU cooked the data to create a worse case senario. However I think we have such an overly wasteful society that we can cut our wastfulness radically and really never cut our standard of living, all the while saving and conserving our natural resources. Waste not want not!
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Joel, great discussion topic!! Justin, good point about percentage of CO2 as a green house gas. I’ve always wondered what would happen to the environment if the world were to switch over to a hydrogen economy tomorrow (supposedly “green”), and we all started emitting water out our tail pipes. Would we flood areas that were previously dry, would rain forests become deserts, would plant species begin to die off because now they don’t have enough CO2 for photosynthesis? It’s just too bad people are so strongly swayed by fear-mongering and the doom and gloom messages.
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I suspect, like the rest of us, Joel’s desperation for new snow may have clouded his judgment when he created his Thursday forecast.
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Justin – thanks for the presentation; it’s interesting. There is plenty of information on all side of the debate to prove whatever point people want to prove. Climate Change is an ongoing scientific inquiry that won’t have a “definite” answer any time soon. It’s also apparent that there won’t be a global agreement on Climate Change any time soon, which makes sense since there are still many different views of the science and of policy options.
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Josh, Caleb – I guess I was just hoping for snow on Thursday. I’ve sometimes seen enough low-level moisture come through to provide some snow, even for systems that split and drop well south. But I guess “Old Mexico” is pretty far south, eh? Still looks like good snow for the southern San Juans by late next week.
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North Routt got a heavy skiff thursday night. I just read a report out of CA about the pineapple express possibly showing up in late Jan. Long ways out but the last time the PE showed up in Steamboat it was very grim.
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Hey Joel, i love the site, and your forecasts have been spot on this winter!
I have skiercross races at copper this weekend, what do you think the weather will be like?
keep up the good work
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Matt – thanks much! Should be snowy and chilly at Copper this weekend. Friday night through Sunday looks like the best time for snow for Copper over the next week. I don’t think the snow will result in big accumulations, but 4-8″ seems reasonable. Remember, though – this is 5 days away, so stay tuned!
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