No more joking around about our recent lack of snowfall. It’s time to get back to our regularly scheduled programming – powder forecasts! So crank up whatever music gets you pumped up, because the snow is BACK!
We had a few surprise flakes yesterday (Sunday) from a very weak storm that scooted to our south, and Breckenridge & Winter Park actually picked up 3 inches. But the big snow is yet to come…
As I said nearly a week ago, there “Gonna be some changes made” to our weather pattern, and those changes start today. Below the forecast, I have a brief discussion about this changing storm pattern. Also, many people have asked me if our pattern of snow this year is typical for an El Nino winter. The short answer is “yes”, and the longer answer will wait until after we have some fun with the FOUR STORMS coming up…
Forecast
YES – WINTER IS BACK! Storms are going to hit Colorado almost non-stop during the week. This is good for snow, but tough to forecast…so there is a little bit more uncertainty in this forecast compared to many of the previous forecasts this winter.
- Monday: Mostly cloudy with light scattered snow showers, especially around Powderhorn on the Grand Mesa. Just a few inches likely.
Storm #1
- Monday night > Tuesday night: Heavier snow starts late Monday evening for Durango, Telluride, Silverton, and Wolf Creek (DTSW). Snow spreads across the rest of the state Tuesday morning and comes to an end by midnight Tuesday. At DTSW, 6-12″ likely with up to 18″. Powderhorn also looks favored with 5-10″. Other areas should see 1-3″, up to 6″.
Storm #2
- Wednesday morning > Thursday morning: After a break Tuesday night, snow will favor the DTSW area on Wednesday with 5-10″ likely. Other areas from Aspen on south could see another 1-3″.
- Thursday: A “tweener” day between storms. There will likely be some snow falling through the day, but this will generally be lighter snow.
Storm #3
- Thursday night > Saturday morning: Heavy snow returns for DTSW with 1-2 FEET possible. Watch for road closures around Wolf Creek Pass and the multiple passes along U.S. 550 between Durango and Ouray. Other areas from Aspen on south and Powderhorn could see 6-12″.
Storm #4
- Saturday morning > Monday morning: Finally, good news for the areas from Aspen on north, including Steamboat, Winter Park, Vail, Beaver Creek, Copper, and most of Summit Co. On-and-off snow should settle over this area for most of the weekend providing 5-10″ by Monday morning, and perhaps up to 15″ around Steamboat/Beaver Creek/Vail.
Stay tuned for a forecast update on Wednesday, which will likely make some tweaks to Storms #3 and #4. YES – WINTER IS BACK!
Merry-go-round of Storms
A large trough (the “Merry-go-round”) is developing just off the west coast of the U.S. The trough will be stationary for most of the week and will spin storms into Colorado from the southwest every 24-36 hours. By next weekend, the merry-go-round will head east of Colorado, but this is when “Storm #4″ spins into the state from the northwest and should bring good snow to areas along and north of I-70.
YAY!!!!!!
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Finally! hope this continues
ps i love this website regardless of the snow conditions
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hey joel how bout the SW CO area, it looks pretty promising but how is the snow quality gonna be, is this a warm/wet or a cold/dry storm cycle?
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Thanks for the potentially good news!!!
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Thanks for the forecast, Joel!
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Sweet! About time too. I’ve got a condo trip lined up to Breck this coming weekend into Tuesday, so this is sweet music to my ears. Hopefully as things progress signs will still be good for the I70 corridor from storms 3&4. This is my first post; Love the site!
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This is exciting for the south. Hopefully the north central resorts get their snow soon. In the meantime I will be driving to wolf creek.
At least there’s moisture flowing thru our state again!
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powderpages.com – looks a little bit more “warm/wet”, with snow:liquid ratios between 10:1 and 15:1. Not super fluffy snow, but no cement either. I think Wolf Creek and Durango will see higher totals than Silverton and Telluride, though all four areas should do very well this week.
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What a great site. We are coming to Steamboat (from Virginia) Jan. 26 thru Feb 2. Any snow is better than what we have on the east coast, but any chances for some powder days during these time periods? Thx.
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Scotty – thanks for stopping by. Steamboat should get good snow on this upcoming weekend, so the base should be restored by the time you get there. Seems like there could be one or 2 storms from the 26th-2nd, but still a little far out to have confidence. Stay tuned!
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Hey Joel,
Your thoughts on how Monarch will do with these storm tracks?
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Adam – Monarch should do best during Storm #3. It’s a touchy forecast this week, but my thought right now is maybe about 6″ Tues/Wed/Thurs total, then another 6-12″ from Thurs PM through Sat AM. Maybe even another 6″ over the weekend…we’ll have to see. The main take-away is the best snow for Monarch should be Friday into Saturday, with good pow on Saturday morning.
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Dumping here in Telluride…BRING IT!
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Hey Joel – what do you think for those of us east of the divide – Eldora – with these storms??
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KD – not looking too good for Eldora until Fri-Sun, and even then it won’t be a big dump. We never get winds from the east (upslope), so that will limit what Eldora sees. But I would still expect ~6″ from Fri>Sun, with the best chances on Friday into Saturday.
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Great site Joel, you make this fun and those of us who read you feel like experts.
We skied from Montezuma to Keystone on Sunday. The snow was rotten below tree line, even my fat boards sunk down to the grass. Our hair stood on end in one bowl above tree line as a huge area around us settled with a ‘whooomp’ and then propagated from there. Lucky – we were on a 20 degree slope and nothing moved – except … I’ll leave that part out.
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So I’ll be in the San Juans tomorrow through friday. Telluride or Wolf Creek? What are your thoughts?
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B Newton – I wouldn’t bet against Wolf Creek, especially with a wind that’s more from the south than west. Both places should do OK with Storm #2, but Storm #3 will be the biggie and will likely favor Wolf Creek. However, the terrain is vastly different between the two places, so that’s a consideration as well. Driving on Friday (at least early in the day) could be messy/impossible down there.
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YOU BETTER BE RIGHT. I AM STARTING TO GET PISSED.
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Is it just me or is the Aspen not going to do well from any of these storms?
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Peter – Aspen should do well on Friday, and maybe into Saturday as well. They won’t be the big winners most likely, but decent new snow will fall from Storm #3.
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FIrst storm and Steamboat got skiffed. Yaaaaa
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Thanks for providing the excellent forecasts, Joel. Stoked to see something besides high pressure, regardless of who wins the biggest totals. But…any plans to go down south? I may be heading down to WC from denver for thurs-fri to get in on the insanity.
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I heard a rumor that Vail seeds their clouds. What say you, Joel? Is Vail going to steal Aspen’s snow?
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I hope you’re right Joel. Here’s a quick link to our snow report: http://bit.ly/7D11lJ
See you on the hill.
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Alex #1 – I’ll be attending/teaching weather at the Silverton Avalanche School Fri-Sun…hopefully making some turns as well! Can’t ride share this weekend, but keep it in mind for later…
Alex #2 – Vail does indeed seed clouds, but most of the snow they “steal” is coming from northwest of Vail, not from the direction of Aspen. You’re safe (for now, until they invent a weather machine!).
mwindt – Heavenly is looking good…the other Vail resorts will get in on the action Fri-Sun. Great for skiing, tough on driving…
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Any insight on the next week/weekend yet? I have friends coming into town, but haven’t decided where we’re going to head. Need to stay in Colorado, but we want good snow. Will I-70 get another wave?
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Tony – it’s tough to forecast for more than 7 days out, but I-70 could get a storm next Wednesday-ish (27th) and then maybe something else for the weekend.
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Joel, Any idea what you think Monarch might get for THIS Friday? Thinking about roadtripping from Denver Friday AM.
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One more thing…If you were going to ski somewhere in Summit on Friday…ie, A-Basin to the Beav, which would it be? by the way, your site is a godsend…
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Joel -
Still planning an updated forecast today? Heading to Keystone this Saturday for a week. Hoping we get some snow!!!
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Joel – Inquiring minds want to know if you will be giving us a new forecast today?
Talk to me
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Todd – there will be snow at Monarch on Friday, and 6-12″ is still a decent guess. But my thought is that most of this will fall during the day and evening, so it won’t be ready for you early in the AM. Also, it will be very windy on Friday. Based on the wind forecast for Friday, somewhere sheltered like Beaver Creek might be a better bet. The best snow for Summit and Eagle Co. will hold off until Saturday and Sunday, though.
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Chris – will update the forecast tonight (Wednesday) and it will be ready first thing Thursday morning. You will have some snow at Keystone Fri and this weekend, and some more during the middle of next week (~Wednesday). Keystone won’t see the biggest totals in the state, but it will get some fresh.
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Kyle – I’ll have a new forecast ready late tonight (Wednesday). But, my previous forecast looks to be on track, and Storm #3 and Storm #4 are still going to hit Colorado hard.
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Excellent, thanks
I have a trip to Steamboat coming Tuesday and it looks as if they could use some new pow
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Thanks Joel. I appreciate that insight!
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Hey Joel,
Sorry to ask about Monarch again,but the NWS forecast for “Monarch,CO” is still looking fairly conservative as far as snow totals. Out of curiosity, the detailed point forecasts for that particular area on the NWS map appear to be looking at an area just outside the Poncha Springs/Salida area rather than actually further west on 50 closer to the top of Monarch Pass itself. Is the NWS forecast for “Monarch,CO” an accurate representation of what conditions might be like closer to the ski area?
Thanks again for taking the time to answer everyones questions.Great site.
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Adam – on the NWS forecasts, go to the Google Map on the lower right hand corner and click on where the resort is. This should get you there: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=38.51025112982332&lon=-106.3418197631836&site=pub&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en Monarch should see about a foot Friday through Sat AM…
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