Storms #3 and #4 are ready to rock (thanks to “Slash”)! My forecast from Monday is not really changing, which means a ton of snow has fallen in the Southwest with MUCH MORE on the way for the entire state over the next four days. Time to get back into winter and get out there! I am heading to Silverton to attend the Silverton Avalanche School Level I avalanche clinic and teach the weather part of the course. What great timing … education meets a blizzard! You should plan to ski this weekend – and here are the details you need:
Forecast
Move the map or zoom in for a better look. Click on the shaded areas of the map for exact snow amounts. Also, click on the mountains to see locations of each resort.
View CPF: Snow Forecast, January 21-24, 2010 in a larger map
Storm #3 targets Durango/Wolf Creek/Silverton/Telluride
- Thursday morning > Saturday morning: Weather conditions on Friday (strong wind, heavy snow) might make skiing tough, but Saturday should be a DEEP day as well.
- Heavy snow for Durango/Wolf Creek/Silverton/Telluride with 2-4 FEET possible. Yes, that is 2-4 FEET. Winds will be very strong and the passes along U.S. 550 between Durango and Ouray and Wolf Creek Pass are likely to close Thursday afternoon/evening. The heavy snow and strong winds will produce BLIZZARD conditions in this southern area. Other locations from Aspen on south and Powderhorn could see 6-12″, with other areas not seeing much snow during this time (1-3″).
Storm #4 targets resorts along I-70, Steamboat, Aspen
- Friday night > Monday morning: The best skiing will be on Sunday after a day of snow on Saturday to soften things up and some good snow overnight Saturday into Sunday. Bundle up – it’ll be chilly and windy.
- This is when the snow really gets cranking for the locations from Aspen on north, including the resorts along I-70. This includes Steamboat, Winter Park, Vail, Beaver Creek, Copper, and most of Summit Co. On-and-off snow should settle over this area for most of the weekend providing 6-12″ by Monday morning, and perhaps OVER A FOOT around Steamboat/Beaver Creek/Vail. A good shot of snow should fall Saturday night, making Sunday morning a good time to get out of bed early.
What happened so far?
Storms #1 and #2 came in as expected with the deepest snow hitting the southern San Juan mountains. The picture below shows the snow totals from Monday to Wednesday and compares them to my forecast from Monday. Not bad … and I hope the accuracy continues through storms #3 and #4! Get out there and take advantage of the fresh!
| RESORT | Total Jan 18-20 (in) |
| Durango | 23.0 |
| Wolf Creek | 22.0 |
| Silverton | 17.0 |
| Powderhorn | 16.5 |
| Telluride | 8.0 |
| Crested Butte | 7.0 |
| Beaver Creek | 6.0 |
| Vail | 6.0 |
| Breckenridge | 4.0 |
| Monarch | 4.0 |
| Sunlight | 4.0 |
| Abasin | 3.0 |
| Keystone | 3.0 |
| Snowmass | 3.0 |
| Loveland | 2.8 |
| Winter Park | 2.5 |
| Aspen Highlands | 2.0 |
| Steamboat | 1.5 |
| Aspen Mountain | 1.0 |
| Buttermilk | 1.0 |
| Copper | 1.0 |
| Cooper | 0.0 |
| Echo | 0.0 |
| Eldora | 0.0 |
Gratzo- What’s the over/under on a deep weekend at Beaver Creek for Talons? http://bit.ly/7D11lJ
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mwindt – over/under? I’m not Vegas man, but we should get to double digits by Sunday morning…and the snow continues through Sunday. It’ll be fun!
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So will any of this carry over into next week? Do you have a longer term forecast beyond this weekend? I gotta work till monday
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Thoughts on Aspen Joel? I just got an invite to head there…though not sure of the potential…seems a bit out of the loop relative to Summit/Eagle…and of course southern CO…
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I skied Wolf Creek Tuesday. It snowed 2-3 inches an hour from 7am on so that on my afternoon runs I was skiing in knee to thigh deep pow pow.
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Joel,
Why does Telluride always get shafted compared to everyone around us? I’ve lived here for three winters now, and the first two storms this week are just another example. How can all the resorts near us get double the snow? Thanks
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Road closure issues! Coming from Albuquerque Friday night. preferred options include: telluride, or crested butte. With 2-3 feet possible, I would imagine driving may be tough. I guess I could always stay in Taos. Ideas?
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Anytime now here in Steamboat. It’s been a cloudy, snowless week, even now mid-day Thursday. Maybe I should take the snowtires off, then it will snow for sure. Snowbird (just to the west) has had 2-3 feet, we’ve had 2″ at best……
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CB seems to be north of the first storm then south of the second. Potntial for the CB dognut?
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Hey buddy you do a great job i must say. Im the aspen weatherman and im currently going to school for meteorology right now. I work for tv aspen ch 19 doing the weather for the roaring fork valley for 4 yrs now. Anyway we do very poorly in a south west flow ! Down sloping kills the snow production on aspen Mt but snowmass does much better. Im calling 10to16 by sunday morning . Would that be a good call? I just hoping the upper air dynamics of this monster over rides the down sloping ! Its been a tough winter and all we can do is hope for some heavy dark greens on the radar flow through aspensnowmass!! Thanks for the updates brother !!
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Joel… please elaborate more on this “windy” word you included above. How windy for Steamboat? And be warned now that you have built up my hopes of over a foot of snow, if we get any less you are cut off from the futon.
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Josh, Sounds SICK. Lucky…
Ryan, are you really calling for 10-16 at Aspen for Sunday AM? wow…I like it…what to do…what to do…
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Any hope that Eldora will get something decent? Which day will be best there this weekend?
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Mike – the snow won’t carry over until next week, but some pow will be left over. Another storm next Wed(ish) and perhaps for the weekend too.
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Todd Z – I would go to Aspen. They should see double digits, and Highland Bowl should ski pretty darn well, especially on Sunday!
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TelluridePow – with these storms from the south, the winds are generally from the southwest or south. This means that the winds have to traverse most of the big mountains south of Tride before they get to the ski area, and most of the snow falls over these mountains to the south of Tride. I think the best wind direction for Tride would be from the west-southwest or west. Tride should do better on Friday afternoon through Saturday morning (when the winds become more favorable). I often lump Tride into the same forecast as Durango/Silverton/Wolf Creek just for simplicity, but really Tride will get much less than those three places when the winds are from the southwest.
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guys, I made it into Silverton before both passes shut down this evening. I might be land-locked for 3 days. Local guestimates are somewhere near 36-45″ before it’s done. storm chasing at it’s finest, on nasty steep mountains. this might be the pinnacle of my powder skiing career. (although 65″ cycle in Alta was hard to beat, this will be the best I’ve seen in Colorado if it pans out to full fruition).
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Build it, and they will come man. Well done! Any guess where I will be next week?
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CM – Taos should do fine, though 285 should be open up into Colorado by Friday afternoon, so you could somewhat easily hit CB by hanging a louie on Rt. 50. Telluride will also be fun this weekend, though Red Mtn Pass isn’t likely to open until Sat (my guess).
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Grant – Steamboat will get some action, Sat & Sun. OK snow on Sat followed by good snow on Sat night after close should make Sunday morning fun with maybe double digits of freshies. Monday AM could also be nice.
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JC – Crested Butte will get snow, but yes – they are north of storm #3 and south of storm #4. CB won’t get shut out and the skiing will be fun, but CB needs winds from the west southwest, and storm #3 is from the SW and storm #4 is from the NW.
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ryanboudreau – 10-16″ for Aspen by Sunday AM seems reasonable. I don’t think there will be much more than 6″ out of the SW flow part of the storm, but and Sat night should treat Aspen well.
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Tamra Malczyk – Winds at Steamboat could gust above 30mph, especially Sat night. But this shouldn’t matter to you as you know all the secret spots to avoid wind!
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Jim – Eldora looks to get little snow. Best day might be Sunday after a litte snow falls Saturdy night.
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Prodigal Sun – I am in Silverton as well! Let’s meet at the Grand Imperial bar Friday night?
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Grand Imperial it is. They need to shovel their sidewalks.
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50″ at Silverton Mountain this morning, but the road is buried under a slide. We’re sitting around interlodge style. hot rub is ready though…
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Anyone care to speculate on storm amounts in Vail vs. the Beav for this weekend? They’re obviously very close, but sometimes one seems to get hit harder than the other — either that, or their snow reporting techniques are just imprecise.
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Sean D – Vail and Beaver Creek are close, but subtle differences in the wind direction and/or lucky heavier snow bands can definitely create real differences between the two resorts. I think Vail will do a little better by Sunday AM, but it’s tough to tell.
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I am getting worried that Vail/BC are going to get skunked Joel…
Thoughts?
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Hate to be the bearer of bad news or contrarian opinions but the CAIC is saying the brunt of the storm is over and is calling for much less snow than everyone else by Sunday morning. http://avalanche.state.co.us/pub_bc_wx.php
I’ve noticed they’ve been very conservative in their snow estimates this year. Care to comment Joel?
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just to chime in on the weather in SW COLO, purg had too much snow for most people today, 2 feet in some places, it was very deep and sticky. but what a blast on fat boards!!! looks like the backcountry is pretty volitile as well, be careful out there everybody!!
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are vail and beaver creek going to get skunked again this weekend?
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About snow this weekend for Vail/Beav – I think it’s still coming. Maybe a bit less than I thought before, but I still think SUNDAY morning will be a good time to ski, with nearly double-digits from Saturday afternoon through midday on Sunday. This goes for Steamboat too, where they’ll likely see a few more inches than Vail/Beav. CAIC is right that the major part of the storm is over (50″ in the San Juans), but another foot(ish) in the northern mountains is still very likely. We’ll see how this goes…
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Just got back from 2 days at WC….Yes there is such a thing as too much snow. WOW it was bottomless and for those who know WC its got a lot of traverses. The snow plowers did an AWESOME job of getting the pass open and the road driveable!!
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i didnt get the chance to get to wolfy but i heard the same, TOO DEEP! I am interested in seeing how this all shakes out for our avalanche conditions next week?!?! the snow seemed to settle a lot even over night at purg.
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Right on Joel! It’s thighdeep powder in the back bowls of Vail and BC got basically skunked! Good call! I can’t wait for your next forecast. Soon…pretty please!?
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Wolf Creek was disgustingly deep yesterday (saturday. It wasn’t too deep. I found good bottomless powder steeps on knife ridge chutes, dog chutes, coyote park, and my final run in Horseshoe bowl was sublime. I also had first descent on alberta face in the morning. I got to wolf creek from the east side early before they closed it for snowplowing. Unfortunately for hundreds of others on their way up who got stuck waiting at the bottom, the pass was closed long enough for a few dozen of us to shred the mountain then move on to hiking terrain.
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You nailed the call on Stmbt. 8″ at the mid-mountain 5am stake, and steady accumulation since. The skiing this AM was excellent, untracked and uncrowded. Once the inbound goods were diced, we moved OB, and it was phenomenal.
Really dig the site. Keep up the good work!
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Finally Steamboat did not get skiffed. 12-18+ of blower.
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keystone was alright today…plenty of snow unfortunately the wind blew it off most of the runs, but there was finally enough coverage to ski trees without having to worry about destroying your bases!
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Vail was awesome yesterday. At least knee deep pow in most places, with deeper snow in certain areas. Trees are filled in nicely, what a day. A weekend like this one gets me excited for the rest of the season.
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Joel can you provide any details on this weeks snow for I-70 resorts.
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Joel, what’s on tap next? Thanks for the early and accurate forecast for last week. Went down to Wolf Creek, and enjoyed all this last series of storms had to offer. Hopefully I can stay closer to home at the end of this week, but hey, I’ll go where you tell me to. I hope you got to make some turns at Silverton!
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Avoided the crowds and had a wonderful day at Vail today. Anywhere from 8-12 untracked in the back early this morning and blue bird skies until noon. Love your site Joel. Thank for all the great beta!
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