Below average snowfall has plagued much of CO so far, but we’re not done just yet.
Keep on reading for something to do tonight, something to do next month, and a great deal to carry you through the winter. Oh, and of course the somewhat-snowy forecast is included free of charge.
Lacking Snow?
It feels like southern Colorado is getting the brunt of this winter’s storms, and northern Colorado (along and north of I-70) is getting the cold shoulder. But what does the data say? According to the numerous remote mountains weather stations (SNOTELs) around Colorado, our gut feel is about right. While the southern part of the state is just below or around average for snowfall through the end of January, the northern areas are 20-30% below average.
But don’t worry – historically, El Nino winters provide a little more snowfall across the north during Feb/March/April compared to earlier in the season. Oh, and in case you’re wondering, El Nino conditions (warm Pacific water) are weakening, but should still hang on (pdf) through the spring.
Free Movies Tonight, 7pm, Golden!
The results of the Serac Adventure Film School are in! After three days of importing, editing, re-editing (is this a word?), and exporting, the finished movies are ready for all to see. Come to the Foss Auditorium at the American Mountaineering Center in Golden (Google map link) tonight, Feb 1st, at 7pm. Why should you come out tonight?
- It’s free!
- Ten films, each about five minutes.
- Meet the filmmakers (including an Aussie, a Marine, a NOLS guide, an outdoor photographer).
- Meet Michael Brown of Serac Films and mountain guide / avalanche educator Tim Brown (scroll down in linked page).
- One of the films is about me
, profiling the birth of the Colorado Powder Forecast.
Forecast
The brunt of last week’s storm (Wed/Thur) missed most of the state, but Wolf Creek continued its domination on the snow scoreboard racking up 17″ of fresh. What does the upcoming week have in store?
- Monday: A bit of light snow continues through the day for northern areas (I-70 and north), but only another 1-2″ is likely. Elsewhere, partly-to-mostly sunny.
- Tuesday: Sunny with comfortable temperatures.
- Wednesday: Increasing clouds especially across the southern part of CO. Snow should start to fly in the San Juans (Durango, Silverton, Wolf Creek) by evening.
- Thursday: Snow starts Wednesday night for the south, and additional snow spreads over the central and northern mountains through the day. This is a weak and “wobbly” storm, so it’s hard to forecast at this point. By Thursday evening, the best chance of snow looks to focus along and north of I-70. The eastern mountains may also see some flakes. OVERALL, this does not look like a big storm with most snow totals coming in below 6″.
- Friday: A few more inches could fall for locations along and north of I-70, but again – this is a tough storm to forecast.
- Sat/Sun: Umm…more light snow? The models are hinting at this, but no specifics at this point. Best chance for another round of snow looks like Sunday>Monday.
Next update: Wednesday morning.
Getting Creative
Friday and Saturday nights were prime time for full-moon skiing. It’s fun to ski deep powder, but it’s also fun to get a little creative and make your own adventure that doesn’t necessarily include bottomless fluff.
After a memory lapse that left my backcountry skis at Copper Mountain, Tim Brown loaned me some equipment (I now love Dynafits) and myself and a friend made our way up an easterly-facing bowl to view a spectacular moonrise over the front range. Once the moon was a little higher in the sky, skiing the low-angle, lightly-treed slope was sensational – no headlamps required. A blurred, grainy, yet still descriptive image is below, just to whet your appetite for the next full moon on the weekend of Feb 27/28.
Deal: Pow Pow Platter
It’s back! You get three days for $99, which breaks down to one day Copper, one day at Winter Park, and one day at Steamboat. More details here.




Hey Joel. I know this is the ‘Colorado’ powder forecast, but I was hoping you might be able to help with a prediction for Jackson this weekend into early next week?
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Justin – a good site for Jackson Hole is http://www.mountainweather.com From what I can see, there should be some decent snow Sat>Tue, but it may favor some mountains to the southwest of Jackson & Grand Targhee. Let us know how it goes up there…it’s a fun mountain when there is lots of snow!
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How about Utah? Do you know of anyone doing predictive work there?
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Joel Aronoff – this is a good site for Utah, run by meteorology grad students at the Univ. of Utah: http://www.utahskiweather.com/ Also, this page from the National Weather Service shows recent snow totals and a specific forecast for the Cottonwood Canyons: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/snow/
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Love the Rocky Photo buddy, way to keep it real. Let’s get a Vail Pass Mango’s next full moon.
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Thanks so much Joel. I know you’ve got you plate full forecasting our mountains. So I was hesitant to ask you about outside the state. However, you did just what I’d hoped, gave me a good resource for the future (and one for UT as a bonus). Now I will save them to my favs and not have to bug you again. You’re the man! I wish I was at Jackson today though!
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Thanks Joel! This is what i was hoping to hear regarding the Nino. It sure made for some great late spring and early summer couloir skiing last year, I’m hoping for the same this year!
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Joel,
You are the man! Snow conditions at Winter Park = decent. Unbelievably enough the snow quality is actually pretty good, yet coverage definitely lacking. SIA trade show going on here now, it’s a zoo.
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We picked up about 4 inches this morning west of Steamboat at our house just outside of town. Keep up the good work Joel.
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Joel,
Glad to have to back. Very nice picture of your moonlight adventure. I used to enjoy moonlight riding on loveland pass back when it used to snow there. haha.
As always, great update. I am looking forward to the next one. Hopefully there is a bit more northern/central snow in the cards.
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uuggh. 75% of normal precip (map) feels more like 20%. I still see grass poking through 5″ of base outside. And I live at 9,200 ft. At least ‘Lost’ is back on T.V. I read somewhere Portillo Chile has more snow than A-Basin right now. Anyone down for a trip to the Andes mid-summer for some backcountry skiing?
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Thanks for the Utah link, Joel. I’m betting on Brighton next cycle. Hey, that’s got like a movie title ring to it: “Betting on Brighton”…
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All – thanks for your comments and conditions updates. Forecast is looking slightly better for northern mountain snow on Thurs>Fri and again Sun>Mon. Updated forecast out on Wednesday AM.
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i feel ya on the 20% prodigal. i have a really awesome ski/work schedule and can get 100 days on the snow pretty easily. man, i have like 35 this year so at the most. this is the least i have ripped in awhile. im like a crackhead waiting for the new forecast….hoping there will be some white in it….
man i’d love to so some bc in s. america….
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lindsee and azlon keith recommended your site. They speak highly of you, with regards to your forcasting and dradel skillz. I too am a powder hound living in the hills of summit county! Peace
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