The storms are weak, but they might add up to good snow for you weekend warriors. This is a short update, but I have one surprise for backcountry fans out there. See the avalanche video at the bottom of this post for more…
Forecast
- Wednesday: Becoming mostly cloudy. Snow is likely around Wolf Creek and the southeast mountains, accumulating about 3-6″ by evening.
- Thursday: Snow moves into the northwest early in the day, spreading over most locations by afternoon and continuing through Thursday night. This is a weak storm, but 3-6″ (up to 8″) are likely here: Steamboat, Vail, Beaver Creek, Loveland, Aspen, Monarch, Crested Butte, Telluride, and Silverton. Most other locations will see just a few inches.
- Friday: Snow will end by Friday morning and the fluff that did fall overnight should be fun to ski in the morning. It might not enough new snow to soften the base in ungroomed areas, but groomers should be plenty of fun. Some sun will come out, but clouds will cover the fireball again by afternoon.
- Saturday: A few more inches of snow could fall across much of the state with another weak storm moving through.
- Sunday: Another few inches of snow, more likely to fall in the southern Colorado mountains. By evening, we could get a storm from the north that drives some very cold air into the plains and creates a few inches of “upslope” snow along the eastern mountains, favoring Eldora and Echo.
- Monday: Chilly and mostly sunny. Light snow could linger across the higher peaks.
- Tuesday: Chilly and mostly sunny.
Storm Tracks
A series of relatively weak storms will affect Colorado over the next five days. Here’s the visual:
Avalanche in the Trees
“We’ll ski that slope over there…it has trees on it, so it’s probably safe.” Many of us have likely been guilty of this thought at one time or another, and until now, I haven’t seen a compelling video to counter this intuition. However, ask any avalanche professional and they will say that a few sparse trees on a slope do not prevent that slope from avalanching. Still, most videos of avalanches show them running on wide-open terrain, so it’s hard to picture a slide in a treed area. Until now.
Here is a video of an avalanche in the trees at Wolf Creek Pass on Sunday, January 24th…just after the storm that dumped over 5 FEET of snow for that area. From the group’s account of the accident,
“The slope of this bowl is about 35 degrees in most spots. The slide was triggered by our second skier on our third run of the day. The main crown looks to have run to the ground…”
For a deeper description of the incident and additional pictures, check out the group’s website. I am glad that these folks were unhurt and that the video can be used to remind us of the avalanche hazard…even on treed terrain on the third run of the day.
Joel,
Very cool video given that everyone was okay. I was always told that in order for trees to protect you in sketch conditions they have to be close enough together that you can’t ski them quickly.
What are your thoughts for the future. I know you put your emphasis on the next 3 days mostly, but do you think that things will get better soon for the north/central mountains? Because I just see more of the same, southerly flow for the most part, with the north getting the leftovers or storms with limited moisture if they’re lucky…. am I wrong?
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Rb – while I’m hopeful that the rest of the season will be better in the northern/central mountains, and some of the snowfall averages from El Nino years supports this hope, I don’t see anything in the weather maps through mid February that gets me very excited.
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Thanks for the forecast and posting your friends’ video, Joel. I know this is stating the obvious (at least to some of us), but the group’s decisionmaking to drop the slopes in the vid (including the highway avy path) are questionable at best, when the CAIC forecast the danger as High for that day, dropped from Extreme only two days prior:
“Storm snow exceeds 6′ in places. Visibility into the backcountry remains limited, but highway crews report an impressive natural avalanche cycle. Colder temperatures, wind, and more snow Saturday night are perfect ingredients for tender slab development. The avalanche warning continues through Sunday. Human triggered and natural slides are likely.”
It is interesting to see the snow move through the trees like that, though, and to see that the boarder didn’t even know he had triggered the slide. Lots of luck involved, hope everyone involved got a real reality check.
Hopefully a northerly storm track shift is in store while we are still in mid-winter mode.
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Alex – thanks for your thoughts! My intent for posting the video was to show a slide moving through trees. We can always second-guess decision making, and indeed I’m sure this experience provided a solid reality check.
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For sure — those trees are just big enough that they would give most a slight level of comfort, but seeing how fast the powder cloud moves through them will be in my mind for some time.
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Incredible footage. Trees slides are one of my biggest fears, can’t tell you how much I ski alone in the trees. Did they drop the avocet in the last clip?
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January 26, 2010 6:47 PM
Monkesius Mountainii said…
We searched for them for 45 minutes. I’m sure they were more scared than we were but we thought we were going to find bodies. We had been up there earlier and when we got up there again and saw the slide aftermath, we thanked God we had previously chosen not to take that line. Then we realized the slide could’ve happened just a few minutes before we got there and felt like we had to search. We didn’t see how it would have been possible to ski out of that thing. So we dropped the cornice on skier’s right of the bowl (which we’d evaluated and ridden safely earlier that day), then traversed over and searched with three beacons, covering virtually the entire debris field, until it started getting dark and we figured anyone in there was dead. With great relief, we found no cars in the lot besides our own when we returned to the Lobo lot. I’m so glad that no one was hurt.
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Gentleman… I was the 3rd member of the party that rode that monster prior to you. We evaluated that aspect of the slope and determined it had considerable slide potential. After reading your account, your lucky not to be a statistic. Praise God your alive… I also would like to thank our group leader proper route selection.
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Hey, so i’m going to be up at vail this weekend (saturday+sunday), and i just broke my race skis, so i’m looking to demo, but i don’t want to demo race skis if there is going to be lots of snow.
What do you think?
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1) Great site. Love your forecasts and general “banter”. I would enjoy to see some additional forecasting for Jackson though (as I’m not overly impressed with the forecast up there)
2) Armchair QBing is so so lame. Everyone has their own risk profile/decision making strategies. If you are skiing beyond the ropes, you are under taking a certain amount of risk. No matter what. I think everyone who has skied fun snow (pow) in Colorado has made “questionable” decisions at times and I’m sure the people in this party now recognize their faults. Hind site is always 20/20.
3)Now that you’ve had an additional 24 hours to look at the weather models, what are your thoughts for today through Sunday in the Steamboat area? 4-6″?
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Joel,
Awesome site. You’ve been dead on so far this year which is way better than any other source. Nice to see a forecast geared toward back country users. I myself am a snowmobiler, and while you are geared at skiers primarily, your forecasts are the first thing I go to when planning my trips and riding areas. Thanks a lot man, keep up the good work!
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Hello gratz0 –
Thanks for sending some snow East…supposed to get around a foot or so!!
Can’t get there Saturday due to impossible driving conditions but your good old Dad will be there Sunday and Monday to get some of that Eastern Powder. Hope it’s light and fluffy like your snow out West!!
Thnk Sno!!
Love ya – Dad
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Matt – I don’t forsee lots of snow for Vail this weekend. Maybe a few inches on Friday night into Saturday, and another few inches on Saturday night through Sunday. I’d say anything that you demo would be fine, but if you are used to race skis, why not try something a little more all mountain? Maybe 85mm under foot? You could still carve, but they would be a little more fun in the choppy snow…
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Jeff – thanks for the compliment! Your guess of 4-6″ for the Steamboat area this weekend could be about right. I see a few inches Fri night into Saturday, and then another shot of a few inches mostly on Sunday and Sunday evening.
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Kestrel Dickerson – thanks for the kind words! Have fun and be safe out there!
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The Flying Spaghetti Monster definitely was on the scene. Hayduke – Thanks for posting and making it entertaining as well as educational.
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Joel – I spend a lot of time looking at forecasts and your accuracy is quickly moving you to the top of the list. That said – any update for this weekend? NWS has a storm warning on for Wolf Creek while CAIC is calling for light amounts down there. Both are calling for a good upslope on the front range and little west of the divide. Your thoughts?
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Gluten Free Snowboarder – Wolf Creek and the San Juans should do pretty well with around 12″, up to 20″ if things come together. Elsewhere in the Elks (Aspen/CB), things are more scattered/uncertain. I put 4-8″ which could be on the low end, but I don’t want to get too excited too soon. The front range snow looks decent-to-good on Sunday, with up to 10″ in the higher foothills/eastern peaks by Sunday night.
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