Comments on: Ok week, weekend looks good

By: Brett Borders

Brett Borders — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 23:22:02 +0000

give me POWDER@!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

By: Joel Gratz

Joel Gratz — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 21:39:53 +0000

You’re on the right track. Jones Pass SNOTEL is nearby (http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/nwcc/sntl-datarpt.jsp?site=970&days=7&state=CO) and the Berthoud SNOTEL is right there (http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/nwcc/sntl-datarpt.jsp?site=335&days=7&state=CO).

The SNOTEL sites are primarily used to monitor water supplies, so they most reliably report “snow water equivalent”, which is the depth of the resulting water if you melted down the snow.

Look at the “Snow Water Equivalent” column and the “Year-to-date Precipitation” column. Figure out how much they change (for the latest storm, there was about 0.5″ of liquid equivalent at Jones Pass), and then multiply this number by the snow-to-liquid ratio. For these areas, a good guess will be 15 inches of snow for each inch of liquid, so multiply 0.5 by 15 and you get about 7-8″ of new snow. With cold northwest flow, the ratio might be closer to 20:1, which means 0.5 * 20 = 10″ new, which is right in the range between Loveland’s 15″ and Winter Park’s 8″.

The Berthoud SNOTEL site looks to have mostly missing data, so this isn’t very helpful.

By: Joel Gratz

Joel Gratz — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 21:33:35 +0000

Ha – signing on the way down. I think I was doing the same thing this weekend:-) Glad it was fun!

By: Eric

Eric — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 21:24:30 +0000

Thanks Joel. On your advice, took a last minute trip to Steamboat over the weekend and got to introduce my daughter to the powder day, and then the encore powder day. She was having so much fun, she was singing as she skied down Storm Peak in the morning.

By: Gluten Free Snowboarder

Gluten Free Snowboarder — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 21:24:25 +0000

Hey Joel,
Did another tour at Berthoud on Monday (http://www.glutenfreesnowboarder.com/?p=4380) after missing out on Vail over the weekend but was wondering if you knew a way to track snow totals at Berthoud Pass itself. I’ve see the hourly report from the CAIC (http://www.avalanche.org/~wxstns/grandnet/BERTHOUD.html) and the Snotel report (http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snotel/snotel.pl?sitenum=335&state=co) from the Department of Agriculture (glad to see our tax dollars go to a useful purpose) but neither one seems to indicate snow totals. Is there another site I’m missing or a way to interpret this data? Right now I just use Winter Parks totals averaged with Loveland’s but would love to have a more scientific method. Any suggestions?

By: Rb

Rb — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 19:55:11 +0000

This is true! Vail does so well under nw flow that I honestly don’t know where the moisture comes from sometimes. I will say though, for midweek, the crowds at vail have been THICK. Lots of tourists the sidecountry, watch your backs out there.

By: Joel Gratz

Joel Gratz — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 18:42:10 +0000

You got it … thanks for your feedback!

By: tomz

tomz — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 18:21:15 +0000

Joel-

Great forecasting. More maps!

thanks

By: Joel Gratz

Joel Gratz — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 17:21:20 +0000

Whoa, now that’s pressure:-) In short – I think you should come out this weekend. There are two main storms – one on Thursday and Thursday night, and another one on Saturday and Saturday night. The Thursday storm should favor Vail over Loveland, with maybe 5-10″ at Vail by Friday morning (3-6″ at Loveland). The Saturday storm will favor Beaver Creek over Vail or Loveland, and could produce another 5-10″ Saturday afternoon and night at Beaver Creek. The best powder days are likely Friday and Sunday. With good snow along I-70 over the last week and more on the way, I doubt you could find better conditions than this upcoming weekend. Please comment back here and let us know if you’re coming and how you enjoyed the trip!

By: Joel Gratz

Joel Gratz — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 17:11:54 +0000

Thanks for the firsthand report! Apparently, Vail does VERY WELL in northwest (not north, not west) flow. Good to remember for the future and glad the snow is staying soft. This upcoming late week and weekend again look good!