I finally figured it out: talk about weather long enough, and you get to talk with talented, gorgeous women!
EDIT Friday @ 10pm: Currently DUMPING around Wolf Creek, Silverton, Telluride, and Crested Butte. These areas could see 10-18″ by Sat AM. The band of heavy snow should move north into Aspen and the I-70 area overnight and Saturday morning, making for good skiing here as well. Snow continues for many areas, including Echo/Eldora, through Saturday night making for great powder on Sunday AM.
EDIT Thursday @ 10pm: Looks like the southern mountains could see more than my previous forecast of 10-20″ over the weekend. Totals could be closer to 30″ around Wolf Creek, Silverton, and Durango by Sunday morning.
There are many reasons to be excited right now. The best reason for excitement is that lots of snow is in the forecast for ALL OF COLORADO over the next five days. Another reason? Geeking out on the weather led me to chat with Aspen’s Plum TV host Ramona Bruland in this interview, which proves that nerdy ski bums can actually talk with amazingly beautiful women. Sheesh – I love this state!
As requested by you, my fantastic readers, this weekend’s forecast will come in three varieties (which is fewer than Ben & Jerry’s but perhaps even more enjoyable at this moment). A written forecast with a map is included, and the video has the full story with a championship soundtrack. And don’t stop scrolling, because professional photographer Connor Walberg shared some recent shots that are hot off the hard drive, and the stoke factor is high.
Antique Forecast (text & map)
It is going to be STORMY (good!) from Thursday through Tuesday. It is tough to correctly predict the exact timing and track of each little storm as it rolls through, but here’s a shot. If anything major changes, I’ll let you know in the comments.
- Thursday: Light snow in the morning along and north of I-70, heavier snow by afternoon and night for areas north of Crested Butte.
- Friday: 5-10″ by Friday morning for Eldora, Steamboat, Beaver Creek, Vail, Sunlight, and Aspen. 3-6″ by Friday morning for other Summit Co., Winter Park, Cooper, Crested Butte, and Monarch. Light snow continues for the same areas before midday. By afternoon, snow lessens along and north of I-70 (except for Steamboat) and begins to come down harder around Crested Butte, Monarch, Telluride, Purg, Silverton, and Wolf Creek. Another 2-4″ possible by Friday night for CB, Monarch Tride, Purg, Silverton, and Wolf Creek.
- Saturday: 6-12″ from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon around Silverton and Wolf Creek. Another 2-4″ for Telluride, Pug, Crested Butte, and Monarch. Snow will likely persist around Aspen and north along I-70 and Steamboat, but it will be generally light snow amounting to only a few inches.
- Sunday: 3-6″ from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning around Crested Butte, Monarch, Sunlight, Aspen, Beaver Creek, and Steamboat. 2-4″ for the San Juans and also for Vail, with just a few inches elsewhere by morning. Snow becomes heavier from Aspen north to along I-70 by midday and afternoon.
- Monday: 4-8″ by morning at Steamboat, Vail, Copper, and Breckenridge. 2-4″ possible around Summit Co., Cooper, and Winter Park. Snow should continue along and north of I-70 through the day.
- Tuesday: Another few inches likely along and north of I-70.
- Wednesday: More snow in store for Colorado…stay tuned!
Phew…that’s a lot to handle. Basically, Thursday and Friday favor areas north of Crested Butte, Friday night through Sunday morning favor areas south of Crested Butte, and Sunday > Tuesday favor areas north of Crested Butte. Still confused? Don’t worry – snow will be everywhere, and the totals from Thursday to Tuesday could look something like this (click the map for details):
View CPF: Snow Forecast, February 18-23, 2010 in a larger map
Newschool Forecast (video)
Get pumped for snow
One day after Valentine’s Day, professional photographer Connor Walberg looked through the viewfinder of his camera in the Vail Backcountry and saw this (snow stoke included at no extra charge):
Looks like Friday and Monday are best for the Denverites with either a 5-mtn pass or WinterPk/Copper.
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Perch Reply:
February 18th, 2010 at 11:26 AM
Yet everyone will go Saturday and Sunday. Sshhhh, don’t encourage anyone to take off work.
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I know the snow is going to be good when you update your forecasts 3 times in 4 days!
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Joel Gratz Reply:
February 18th, 2010 at 12:11 PM
Yes…I am excited, plus I want to keep everyone updated when the snow finally comes!
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Damn Joel – you keep raising the bar! Excellent video forecast, as detailed as one could ever hope for – my main concern now is that all that information I gather to find the best place to go on a powder day is now available to everyone in one quick click on your site thus making the best spots more crowded – have you thought about going to a pay service model perhaps?
And not to change the subject but if you haven’t seen photos of the incredible surf contest at Mavericks last Saturday you should check out my latest post (http://www.glutenfreesnowboarder.com/). They had waves at least 50 feet high and I also included some video links, two of which show a rogue wave wiping out a bunch of spectators – a wild and wooly weather day on the ocean.
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Joel Gratz Reply:
February 18th, 2010 at 5:09 PM
Wow…amazing video from Mavericks. Don’t quote me, but I believe that about 1% of waves, statistically, can be twice the height of the average wave height. So even though most of the waves are, say 40 feet, statistically 1 out of 100 waves could be 80 feet.
On to snow … yes, I have thought of a pay model, but will not go to a pay model until I feel the content and technology is worth the price of admission. The site will stay free for the remainder of the year, and depending on what the future holds, I might spend a significant amount of resources to make this a first-class (in terms of technology) website which will help provide the rationale for a subscription fee. Until then, I’m happy to provide info for as many as possible…as even though a lot of people want to ski the most powder, there are always untouched spots waiting to be discovered.
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Joel- I watch your great site like a hawk from out here in Palisade. This weekend is our annual trip to Dark Canyon hut on the N.E. side of Mt. Peale / Mt. Melanthin in the La Sal’s. I know were behind the Zion Curtain, but what do you think we’ll be skiing in at 10,500′. I’ll send photos after if you’d like cheers
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Joel Gratz Reply:
February 18th, 2010 at 5:11 PM
The weather there could be similar to Powderhorn…snow on Thurs PM, maybe a break on Friday, perhaps more snow Fri PM through Sat AM, then a break, then more snow for Sunday & Monday. Please post some pictures…I’m working on updating the comments section so people can post pics! A link to Flickr/Picasa would also be great.
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Joel–
Thanks for doing what you do! I first heard of you in an article from one of the Boulder newspapers, and you have been right in in your predictions for as long as I have been reading!
I like your forecasts not just because of their accuracy, not just because you focus on the aspects of winter weather that I care most about (powder), but especially because I often learn something about meteorology reading your posts. TV weathermen seem to want to hold on to the false mystique about their (terrible) predictions, as if nobody else could possibly understand how it all works. (I also hate how they constantly imply that sun is a good thing that we should all wish for all the time. ugh.) Thanks for not talking down to us!
So for a guy with an Epic Pass, what days are going to be the best at Vail? Your earlier forecast predicted Saturday, but this revised one points toward Sunday and Monday. Last Saturday was AMAZING at Vail–6″ to 10″ of powder in the trees, half an inch of snow covering you by the time you get to the top of the lift–do we have any days like that this Saturday, Sunday, or Monday?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
February 18th, 2010 at 5:12 PM
Thanks for the roll of compliments! Epic pass = best days at Vail/Beav on Fri, Sun, Mon. Monday could be the best combo of deep snow (from a few days of accumulation) and fewer people. Sat will be nice, but the fresh will be chopped up from Fri.
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Currently dumping big fat flakes in Nederland, blowing in from the northeast.
Thanks Joel, looks like tomorrow is a sick day.
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Joel Gratz Reply:
February 18th, 2010 at 5:12 PM
Thanks for the report!
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Who’s in Connor’s photos? Fatypus team rider?
BTW Fatypus rocks.
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Joel Gratz Reply:
February 18th, 2010 at 5:13 PM
Not sure…maybe Connor can let us know.
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Bombdiggity Dude! Thanks for the most excellent update!
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Last Sunday at Vail was epic. Saturday was good too, but not *as* good. Looking forward to a repeat! Looks like two sick days this weekend for a Fri-Mon adventure. Glad I chose Saturday night this week for date night, perfect planning!
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Joel,
you da man.Just got home from sking Snowmass. We got 4 up high
last night. In some places it was sking much deeper. Looking forward to
more pow.
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Joel Gratz Reply:
February 18th, 2010 at 5:15 PM
Thanks for the report…this is helpful since I can’t be in all places at the same time! Enjoy!
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Wait….Is It…Winter! about time, Thanks for the great reporting Joel. Heading to BC in a couple hours
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The athlete in the ski photos is Matt Luczkow, a Fatypus team rider. He was in Warren Miller’s Colorado segment last year!
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Hello America! My name is Jacques Absorber and I am here to pay homage to the Wayne Wong of weather forecasting, Joel Gratz!
Hail the Powder Forecast!
All hail The great Colorado Powder Forecast!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Joel Gratz Reply:
February 19th, 2010 at 8:51 PM
Ha…Wayne Wong!! I met him when I was about 8 years old at Sunday River, ME.
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Joel,
You’re kickin’ ass at the forecasting, cheers to all nerdy ski bums that are into this site! I feel like I have a lot in common with you as I used to watch the weather channel everyday after school for potential snow as a young New Englander! I have always loved the meteorology, and I teach Earth Science to 9th graders, thanks for bringing it in a approachable way to the masses. The Question: Given the SW wind in Northern Colorado over the next couple days, do you think Beaver Creek benefits from this wind direction more than Vail, in terms of orographics??? Thanks!
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Joel Gratz Reply:
February 18th, 2010 at 9:02 PM
Good question. A westerly wind will favor Beaver Creek over Vail, but anything from the SW will keep the heavy snow away from all of I-70. This is why I think the heaviest snow stays south of I-70 through Saturday night, and then I-70 and north begins to get the goods on Sunday as the wind switches around more to the west.
Also, I’d be happy to come in and talk weather with your 9th grade glass…get in touch via joel@coloradopowderforecast.com
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looks like Eldora is only reporting 1.5″
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I’m sure Joel looks at stuff like this all the time, but for the rest of us check out this 180 hour animated (and quite psychedelic) weather model that the CAIC linked to in their report this morning. For those of us old enough to remember, you might even get a flashback to the 70’s. http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_500_vrt&loop=1
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skunked in steamboat last night. woke up to clear skies. maybe our luck will change tonight!?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
February 19th, 2010 at 8:53 PM
Steamboat could get skunked for much of the storm. Light snow is happening, but not sure if they’ll get the heaviest snow. One day, it will be Steamboat’s day…
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Fist off great job. I first saw your article in the boulder daily camera right around the thanksgiving or xmas holiday. Keep up the great work.
Any suggestions or comment for abasin this weekend? Saturday or Sunday; better?
Take care
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Joel Gratz Reply:
February 19th, 2010 at 8:54 PM
Thanks! Sunday looks like the better shot for Abasin. Could get decent snow on Saturday, but the addition of snow totals from Saturday and Saturday night and Sunday morning should make Sunday the better of the two days.
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you were way wrong about eldora for friday. What do you think sunday will be like
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Dan Hickstein Reply:
February 19th, 2010 at 12:36 PM
I just skied Eldora, they got all of the 10 mm that Joel predicted. More like 20 mm in the trees.
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Joel Gratz Reply:
February 19th, 2010 at 9:02 PM
Eh, I think that’s more like 50mm (= 5cm = 2in). Honestly, I’m pretty shocked at the low total. Winter Park got 5″, and even Boulder got 2″, so I thought Eldora would at least get 5″. Sunday could be a very good day with maybe half-a-foot. At least it will be better than Friday!
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cool DAN but Eldora’s website says they only got 3 inches in last 24 hours. And for a resort to underestimate their own snow in unheard of.
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I’m heading down to WC this weekend, and was psyched to see your update! I hope it verifies …
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Joel Gratz Reply:
February 19th, 2010 at 9:03 PM
Lookin’ good down there. Silverton just came in with 15″ by Friday afternoon…wow!
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Breck skied great today. Reported 7″, skied knee-deep in places up top. Been snowing pretty hard all day.
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Joel Gratz Reply:
February 19th, 2010 at 9:03 PM
Excellent – thanks for the report!
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Did you watch “Aviation Weather” produced by Maryland Public Television and broadcast on PBS (at least as far west as New Mexico) when you were younger, Joel (or am I dating myself)? It was on in the 1970s, I believe.
Was a favorite weather show of mine, and probably why I ended up studying geography.
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Joel Gratz Reply:
February 19th, 2010 at 9:04 PM
I didn’t watch it…I was born in 1981:-) I grew up liking aviation, though, which is how I got into meteorology.
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just got back from taos, my high speed quads are burnin. they’re open wall to wall with decent coverage. definitely worth catchin the next time a storm tracks to far south. sounds like good timing to be back though. bring it on old man winter!!!
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Jacques Absorber will be leaving next week for a trip to Telluride, Crested Butte and Monarch Powdercats.
Looks like I couldn’t have possibly picked a better spot!!!!
BWWWWAHAAAAAAHAWAAAAHAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Great day at Snowmass today.. Way to get face time with thE snowbunnies DUDE…..
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Great interview Joel – it looked like you confused her with that “80% wind” answer!
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Ramona is digging on you, bro! Nerds get all the play, Gratzo, and as you can see in the photo, she’s checking out the beard–strong work my friend!
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