It might be getting warmer, but the snow is still great if you know where to look. Thanks to Caleb for making me look good out there.
It feels like spring, which means snow, sun, and warm temps all rolled into one.
First, a cool announcement for the Front Range crew. Come to the REI Store in Boulder tonight (March 4th) at 7pm to chat with me about weather. I’m giving a talk called “How to forecast your next powder day” and answering as many questions as people can pack in. C’mon over and say hi…it’s FREE!
Second, please read the instructions for all your outdoor gear. This is to ensure you don’t confuse a Personal Locator Beacon with an Avalanche Beacon.
Third, do you remember what you were doing when you were 13 years old? You probably weren’t doing this: 13yr old Mitch Gilman’s mid-season video. If you’re registered at Newschoolers, vote it up. [Disclaimer: I know Mitch and think he's awesome. Also, at 13 years old, I was getting a Bar Mitzvah and shredding the loose granular at Shawnee Mt, PA]
Fourth, the last storm on Sunday did the impossible. It took a southern route, but only put down a few flakes in the San Juans while handing it to the continental divide with 6-16″ of snow in wrap-around moisture. I love when the weather puts all the weathermen (including me) in our place. Still some work to do!
Lastly – I try to respect your inbox, so I don’t send out an email each time the blog is updated. You can follow me on Twitter or grab the RSS feed to ensure you don’t miss a thing.
Antique Forecast (Text)
I don’t have a lot of confidence forecasting snow amounts for any of the upcoming storms. The models don’t have a great handle on each storm’s exact track, but here’s my best estimate.
- Thursday: Partly sunny for most of the day, then clouding by by late afternoon. A strong cold front will push a very heavy band of snow across the state from west to east. This heavy band of snow will only last for a few hours, but could put down a quick 3-6″ for all areas, starting around 5pm near the UT/CO and hitting the Vail Pass/Summit Co. area between about 10pm to midnight. After the heavy snow band passes, snow will slacken but could continue lightly into daybreak Friday AM.
- Friday: Light snow on-and-off, mostly for areas along and north of I-70. Another 1-3″ could accumulate through the day. This could be a pretty good day to ride based on a quick shot of good snow Thursday night and continued snow through the day.
- Saturday: Mostly sunny and WARM. Dress lightly and wear the sunscreen!
- Sunday: Clouds increase through the day with snow developing by evening for most areas. While many mountain areas could see 3-6″ from this storm overnight on Sunday, the biggest accumulations could be east of the divide where good upslope winds (from the east) will push a good bit of moisture into the mountains. Accumulations Sunday night and Monday morning could push 12″+ east of the divide.
- Monday: Lingering snow is likely for areas along and north of I-70, including the mountains east of the divide. Another few inches could fall, making this day a good candidate for a long weekend (likely not an epic powder day in the mountains west of the divide, but it’s better than working, right?).
- Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a few flurries. Lots of uncertainty with another weak storm coming later Tuesday into Wednesday.
- Wednesday: Light snow likely, though again there is a bunch of uncertainty with this storm.
Multimedia Stoke
Like what you see? Click the pic for more shots from last week on Vail Pass. Thanks to Caleb for the images and Pete for being an amazing skier.
A 1-minute recap of the last week on snow:
Weather Insight
OK Joel – there’s enough links above to keep me busy all morning. I can see that I’m going to have to start shooting video to get on your page – I know you’ve already checked these pix out but for those who haven’t I’m still reliving all the powder shots I had at Berthoud on Tuesday. I love how your posts cut right to the chase as opposed to wading through the National Weather Services Forecast discussion (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=BOU&product=AFD&issuedby=BOU) which does however give me a good idea of how much information you’re having to process. You’re very quickly becoming the go to guy for skiing weather – are you feeling the pressure?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 4th, 2010 at 12:09 PM
Your pics are great! But yes…some nicely edited video would have a good chance of being posted here:-)
The NWS discussions are (often) very educational and I love reading them, but yes – there is a TON of information to process to arrive at “Friday will be a good pow day”. Thankfully after 5 years, it takes me less time to get a “feel” for the weather than when I started. There is definitely information overload, though.
I do feel the pressure – in a good way. I hate being wrong, but it’s also a good learning experience for me. Overall – it seems like people are happy to get the best possible forecast, even if it happens to be wrong from time-to-time.
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Gluten Free Snowboarder Reply:
March 4th, 2010 at 12:31 PM
Hey I was just kidding about the pressure but seriously you’re doing a great job – it takes a brave man to try and forecast snow totals accurately in Colorado. I don’t think most folks have any idea of how many variables go into snow forecasting and how one small shift in one of those variables can totally change what actually happens. The nice thing with you is that I know you want to catch the storms as badly as the rest of us so you have a lot personally invested in getting it right. Keep up the great work!
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Dan Hickstein Reply:
March 4th, 2010 at 12:42 PM
Joel,
Your forecasts are awesome! We are psyched to have a forecast that is only wrong occasionally, compared to forecasts from the National Weather Service that only right occasionally. How do you afford the massive supercomputers that it must require to forecast the snow better than anybody else?
Skiing conversations are so much simpler now:
“Joel says we should shred the backcountry on Friday.”
“Okay, let’s do it.”
Success! http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4013/4391119172_489df188f5_b.jpg
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 4th, 2010 at 1:12 PM
Nice pic! And thanks for the compliment…I should hire you as a PR person:-)
No need for supercomputers here … Washington D.C. has enough of them to produce all the weather models. It’s all about experience and the personal desire to catch powder – that’s what makes a good forecast!
Nice video Joel. A fun day for sure. Looks like more snow on the way!
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so does that mean monday would be a good day to cut the drive short and hit up a-basin?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 4th, 2010 at 12:11 PM
Yeah…I can’t guarantee anything with the Sunday storm at this point, but it could be another ugly Sunday evening commute east on I-70, and Monday AM might be good along the divide. Stay tuned…I’ll keep you updated. If not via the website, then at least through my tweets: http://www.twitter.com/gratzo
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that edit on new schoolers you linked to was ridiculous.
(and thanks as always for the forecast)
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 4th, 2010 at 12:12 PM
Yes…Mitch is one talented kid. Humble and smart, too … an awesome combo for a 13 year old!
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You continue to be the man! I’ve got a group going down to Monarch tonight for the weekend. Any recommendations on which days to hit backcountry and which to be on the resort? Thanks for being our trusted weatherman! You and CAIC are my go-to sources.
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 4th, 2010 at 12:13 PM
Friday looks partly sunny with just a few snow showers after a few inches Thurs night. Saturday is warm and sunny, and Sunday will be windy with more clouds and snow by afternoon. Sat looks like the nicest day of Fri/Sat/Sun, so that might be a good time to explore. The sun and warm temps will have a big effect on the snow, so be mindful of avy danger and definitely check in with the CAIC avy forecast. Let us know how it is!
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 4th, 2010 at 12:14 PM
This is the specific forecast for the Monarch area, btw.
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Would winter park be considered east of the divide for the more favorable snow amounts?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 4th, 2010 at 1:10 PM
Yep…in this case it will depend on the exact track of the storm. If it strengthens as it moves into northeast New Mexico, it should slow down and provide some decent snow along and east of the divide. However, the models are hinting at moving the storm further south and speeding it up, which would keep accumulations to only a few inches and push most of the snow/rain east out on to the plains. We’ll see!
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Yo Joel, I’m from the philly area myself. Three friends and I have been taking trips out west the past 2 years and visited Colorado (mainly Summit Co.) early in February. We were blown away even though everybody we talked to said it was one of the worst winters in a long time. I stumbled onto your website in October and even though I’m not going to make out again this winter I still look forward to your forecast every week. Great job man, keep up the good work.
P.S. I skied Blue Mountain on Sunday and it was everything you could wish for. People skiing in jeans, long lift lines, and everybody in a big hurry. Gotta love it.
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 4th, 2010 at 3:24 PM
Good to hear from you! Makes me want a Delassandros cheesesteak… Seven Springs (out near Pittsburgh) actually has more snowfall this year than most of the Colorado resorts. Go figure! Holler if you’re ever out this way…
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Have a shot at hitting Snowbird on March 11th. Only will go if decent new snow, best guess?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 4th, 2010 at 9:53 PM
Some new snow: yes. “Decent”? Probably not big powder days. They’ll get a few inches Sunday, and maybe another few inches Tue/Wed/Thur, but these days are highly uncertain as the weather pattern isn’t very well defined. This undefined weather pattern doesn’t give me much confidence when forecasting a “no-go” for you, but overall it just doesn’t look like very impressive snow for Snowbird between Sun – Fri. Too bad…that place is amazing on a powder day!
If you can hold off on your decision, check back in over the weekend and we’ll work on a final recommendation.
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JBF Reply:
March 5th, 2010 at 4:22 PM
will do, you’re the best!
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Hey joel, thanks for all the hard work you do for us powderhounds. Hows the long term spring forecast lookin? CAIC says storms are backed up all the way to china. Just wandering what your opinion was. Spring is my favorite time to ski. Once the snowpack goes all ET, you can go anywhere and ski any line you want.
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Troy Reply:
March 5th, 2010 at 9:53 AM
skibum,
Just curious what do you mean by “ET”?
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skibum Reply:
March 5th, 2010 at 10:08 AM
ET = Equal Temperature, when all of the snowpack becomes the same temp. One big homogeneous blob that from which the greatest corn snow comes from. As opposed to a temperature gradient that comes with a multi-layered snowpack(read unstable slabs).
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 5th, 2010 at 11:23 AM
Looks like one storm Sun/Mon, another on Wed, and then another next weekend. The Sun/Mon storm looks to be weak for CO as it dives south of the state. The Wed and next weekend storms could have better snow. No promises on big accumulations from any of the storms, but at least we’re in an active pattern!
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Not much snow overnight. Has the snowfall shifted from last night to today, or was it just not as heavy as anticipated?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 5th, 2010 at 11:26 AM
The heavy snow band that came through overnight was not as strong as I thought, so that’s why we only saw 1-3″ instead of 3-6″. Still a shot of some heavier on-and-off snow this afternoon giving another few inches along and north of I-70, but it’ll take some luck!
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Planning my virgin voyage to Silverton next Friday, either of the next 2 storms look promising for Silverton?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 5th, 2010 at 3:39 PM
Both the Sun/Mon and Wed storms could be OK for them. Likely not huge dumps, but additional inches look likely…stay tuned!
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Prodigal Sun Reply:
March 5th, 2010 at 9:57 PM
Bondcop, I’ve skied a bunch at Silverton this year. Honestly, you’d want a little high pressure for your trip, by virtue that you’ll ski more terrain that’s been otherwise inundated with continuous snowfalls–because they’re class 5 slide paths, they take more time to open. They also have something like 7 heli zones they drop in; when you get to the tent, ask about the heli–the best snow by far you can ski. I don’t work for these guys or get kickbacks for recommending, but I speak the truth. The rope-d sections will probably be filled in, etc. They farm it out for their clients.
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bondcop Reply:
March 6th, 2010 at 7:32 AM
Thx for the advice prodigal. Hard to believe the heli cost is worth it, with all the terrain you can access by lift/hike. Is the heli terrain better or is the benefit that it is untracked?
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Prodigal Sun Reply:
March 6th, 2010 at 7:50 AM
The lift-guide-served terrain is really sick, it’ll keep you occupied for years. The Heli zones are just another option to access the San Juans. They fly all the way to Eureka now–and do control most of the mountains they drop on, so you can send it. A lot of the terrain is on private property, with permits via the Silverton operation to work out of these areas. I suppose I’m on the fly list whenever I visit because the opportunity to ski stuff currently exists where I thought would never happen down there. Nasty steep.
Snowbird 3/5 @ 2:35pm. 16″ in 12hrs, 23″ in 24.
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 5th, 2010 at 3:41 PM
The cottonwood canyons got lucky as a good snowband setup over them all Thurs night. 40 miles to the north at Snowbasin and Powder Mtn was much drier…~6 inches.
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