Truck-sized boulders fell on I-70 Sunday night in Glenwood Canyon, closing the road indefinitely. The snow/rain that likely helped the boulders to succumb to gravity was from a stronger-than expected storm moving just south of Colorado.
TODAY is why I love forecasting weather.
Despite the best technology used to observe and predict the weather, and years of experience, there are still plenty of surprises.
The storm that was supposed to keep most of its energy around the southern mountains is now a bit stronger and a bit further north. The result? More snow than expected for most mountains today (Monday), and a big rockslide in Glenwood Canyon that has I-70 shut down.
Perhaps this extra-strong storm put the folks at Vail Resorts in a good mood, because they are giving away (no strings attached) lunch at Keystone on Thursday and Vail on Friday. Details here.
Below the forecast and “Weather Insight” is a quick story of a weather-loving 1st grade class in Denver. Also, you’ll notice some advertisements on the right-side of the page. I hope these are not too distracting … just doing some end-of-season testing with the site while making a few bucks. The ads should be generally relevant to having fun in the snow.
Antique Forecast (Text)
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday could be great mid-week days to ride the March freshies. Take advantage before the warm sun returns by the weekend.
- Monday: Heavy snow is falling across many mountains, including Steamboat, Vail, Beaver Creek, Copper, Aspen, Monarch, and Telluride. This snow will slowly end from northwest to southeast this evening.
- Tuesday: Morning reports will likely show an additional 3-6″ at the locations mentioned just above, with some heavier amounts possible. Clouds and some flurries could stick around, but the heavier snow won’t start again until later Tuesday night.
- Wednesday: Another round of 3-6″ could fall between Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon, favoring Summit Co. with the heaviest accumulations.
- Thursday: Snow could hang on. The weather pattern is complicated and one of surprises, so stay tuned…this could be a better-than-expected day.
- Friday: Sun returns by midday. Get after the snow early, since a high March sun makes light powder into some heavy crud in no time!
- Saturday/Sunday: Mostly sunny and warm…work on that tan (using sunscreen, of course).
Weather Insight
Loving the Weather in 1st Grade
If you would like me to visit your group (any size, any age) and have a fun & informative chat about the weather – let me know. A 1st grade teacher at the Graland Country Day School contacted asked me to come chat about the weather, and I had a great time with the 20 meteorologists-to-be. It’s fun to hear about the kid’s take on the weather and to help them understand just a bit more about snow, tornados, hurricanes, and clouds. Yes…I do like all types of weather, even though snow is my bread and butter.
The "cloud experts" of a local 1st grade class.
Thanks for the update Joel! This Sunday at Wolfie was better than expected, with freshies to be had most of the day!
What is the long term expectations, as this teacher has all of next week off and is hoping for some deep powder to fall from the sky?
Any of that in the long range crystal?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 8th, 2010 at 4:46 PM
Looks dry and warm this weekend, then uncertain into next week. Don’t see additional big storms next week, but that’s too far out to reliably predict at this point.
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wow! free lunch at Vail and Keystone?!
they’ve got to do better than that. maybe you can tell them that if they pay me $100 per day I’d be willing to drive I70 and ski there.
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 9th, 2010 at 12:31 AM
To each their own…I-70 and the crowds can be a mess sometimes. I’m just trying to share some good deals as I see them.
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That creepy first grader in the middle with the beard looks like he may have been held back a few grades.
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 8th, 2010 at 4:48 PM
Indeed. That guy was no cloud expert, let me tell you…
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“Monday: Heavy snow is falling across many mountains, including Steamboat…”
I wish it were true but I am staring at Steamboat Ski resort as I type this and snow is definitely not falling, heavily or otherwise…just drops of melted snow dripping off the roof of the house.
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 8th, 2010 at 4:51 PM
Even up top? The webcam looked pretty socked in around noon above mid
mountain…
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leroy mcgee Reply:
March 8th, 2010 at 5:03 PM
Looks like light snow is falling up on Storm Peak…but looks to me like more fog than snow. Thunderhead and Christie are clear. Let’s hope that cloud drops and the whole mountain starts seeing something tonight.
Update, cloud is dropping, now covering Thunderhead. Pic attached as of 5pm Mon.
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Hey Joel,
Revisiting my question from last week re Snowbird this thursday. If it looks like a good storm ie 10+ I will be on my way. What do you think?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 8th, 2010 at 4:57 PM
Snowbird might see a total of 5-10, if lucky, on Tues, Wed, and Thuraday combined. Looks warm and sunny from Thursday afternoon through the weekend. Doesn’t look like big powder days if you head there on Thurs.
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I took my snow tires off of my townie commuter bicycle in hopes that I would tempt the snow gods to be fruitful. I believe that it worked…
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 8th, 2010 at 4:51 PM
Thanks…good job, sir!
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Hopefully I get some powder on Tuesday and Wednesday. Back to mountain biking for the weekend it looks like.
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Hey Joel, Thanks! I plan my week by your forecasts.
I need sun for a shoot this week. Is a morning bluebird sky likely for Aspen on Tuesday or better to wait for Friday?
How ’bout a tip jar on the site. I bet a lot of us would like to contribute for all the valuable info you’re doling out.
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 9th, 2010 at 12:54 AM
Might be a bit late to plan Tuesday AM (sorry!)…could be sunny, but lots of moisture around Colorado give me less confidence on a sunny AM for Tuesday. Friday looks pretty nice in the AM … maybe some lingering clouds on the peaks, but it should be a sunny morning.
Hmmm…a tip jar. We’ll see – thanks for the idea!
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Thanks for the help Joel!
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Looks like Culebra #2 is the big winner out of this latest storm:
2010-03-08 0000 10.6 40.0 9.2 29.7 47.1 17.2 32.0
2010-03-09 0000 12.4 61.0 10.5 21.9 31.6 21.9 26.2
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how is powderhorn looking sat/sun?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 9th, 2010 at 8:14 AM
Sunny and warm
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Great website! How are we looking for Loveland tonight into tomorrow?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 9th, 2010 at 8:16 AM
Thanks! Likely some more snow…maybe a few inches? Looks like a persistent, on-and-off type snow later today through Wednesday. Hard to say much more than that right now.
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Hey Joel,
I know it’s not quite in CO, but considering there isn’t a New Mexico powder forecast, what do you think about Taos for thurs, fri, sat? There’s a freeride comp down there, just wondering how the snow will be for that.
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 9th, 2010 at 8:17 AM
Pretty good snow down there on Wed (5-10″?), then maybe a bit of light snow hanging on for Thurs, then mostly sunny Fri, Sat, & Sun.
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This past weekend at Monarch:
Just as you predicted, snowy on Friday, warm and sunny on Saturday. Awfully windy above treeline Friday, so the bowls got nicely filled in for some good hucking saturday. Boot deep plus on Friday, and still some of it around on Saturday, once we knew where the spots were. Sunday started warm and sunny, got snowy around noon. Fortunately we were in the cottonwood hot springs by then, soaking in the goodness. Seems like we got home just in front of the storm!
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skibum Reply:
March 9th, 2010 at 5:42 PM
Monarch got another 20+” of 11% snow over the last couple of days. Plenty of hero snow for huckin . . .
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 9th, 2010 at 8:53 PM
Do you really mean 11%? That’s about 10″ of snow for every 1″ of liquid. It’s totally possible, that’s just a little heavy for Colorado standards, outside of the southwest mountains especially. So…it was a little heavy? Still, a foot and a half is fun!
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skibum Reply:
March 11th, 2010 at 6:49 AM
Yes, 11% of superfat stellar dendrites. Thats still about 89% air. It skied like a wet dream. I believe spring has arrived. Let the giant spring storms begin!! Just watch out for lightning out there!
Hey Joel… crazy question here (maybe) but I’m heading to the GJ area tomorrow afternoon/evening from Fort Collins. If you’ve got a second, could you recommend a clean(est) road route given that the Glenwood straight-shot is outta the question? Should one head straight west to Steamboat Spring and over and down, or south over Monarch and back up through Montrose?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 9th, 2010 at 8:55 PM
Northern route should be quickest for you, and the weather should be fine. Maybe some snow over Cameron and Rabbit Ears passes, but nothing too terrible. Then down through Meeker to Rifle…enjoy! The road from Meeker to Rifle is actually really cool and seldom traveled, except for now!
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Hey Joel – any chance of an update on this “complicated” weather system?
I’m debating skiing Wed or Thu at either Winter Park or Copper.
My guess is I’ll be skiing in a blizzard on Wed … but if I go Thu, there’s potential for substantial accumulation overnight and major pow-pow day under (slowly) clearing skies.
What would the snow guru recommend?
Thanks!
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 9th, 2010 at 8:57 PM
Eh…I’m not overly optimistic about big snow Wed/Thurs. I think the best day to ski will be Thurs, letting more snow pile up Wed and Wed night into Thursday. I think WP will get more than Copper out of this storm, but the totals will be 2-4″ or 3-6″? It could go higher, but I am just not confident in a big storm, so don’t want to get you overly excited. My pick? Thurs @ Winter Park.
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alek Reply:
March 10th, 2010 at 7:22 PM
Thanks for the response Joel – BTW, I forgot to say earlier that your website ROCKS!
Due to work constraints, we ended up at Winter Park today. Despite prediction of snow during the day, we never say any from the 9:30-3:00 that we were there – partly cloudy skies the entire time. Weather was much worse in Denver as we drove in at 4:30.
About 6″ of pow-pow in the trees (especially above Eagle Wind), so nothing epic, but some nice soft stuff (and no crowds) so certainly a decent day of skiing.
alek
P.S. We met at Boulder Ignite VII – loved your presentation, and awesome you were “dressed” for it in your ski gear.
I was the speaker who did the Antarctica talk – http://www.komar.org/faq/travel/vacation/antarctica/ignite/
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Sooo….
Vail on Wed or Thur?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 9th, 2010 at 8:58 PM
Thursday. Could snow Wed and Wed night into Thurs. Like my reply above, not looking at huge totals (3-6″ by Thurs AM) but the best snow will likely be on Thurs allowing for another 24hrs of accumulation.
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Ok, So on day like today at Copper where do you like to go to hit the best powder?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 9th, 2010 at 8:59 PM
I’m not an expert at Copper, but all the back areas and Union Peak were fun. Midweek crowds (or lack of them) make it pretty easy and stress free to find some stashes.
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Wife is 1st grade teacher. Please email me to get something lined up.
Scottcarlsonco@hotmail.com
Gracias.
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 9th, 2010 at 9:00 PM
Will do! And for everyone else…I’m happy to talk with any school or other groups, not just first grade;-)
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@ alek- I agree w/ Joel, based on his forecast WP will ski well on Thursday. WP has been skiing really well since the end of Jan. Knee deep snow is there if you look in the right spots!
@ Lucas- think about which slopes face directly North at Copper. Ski accordingly and enjoy the softer, deeper faces. It skied great yesterday.
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Hey Joel,
NOAA is calling for a storm system for late Saturday into Sunday for the Southern San Juan(WC)…any ideas on the intensity and timing of this system
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 10th, 2010 at 2:05 PM
This is a rogue little storm that is breaking off the main west-to-east flow and heading southeast from the Pac NW down into SW Texas. It will clip western and southern Colorado from Sat PM through Monday AM, though snow amounts are tough to forecast. At this point, I’d guess that Wolf Creek could get a nice sprinkling of new snow, but think that amounts will stay below double digits. I’ll update the forecast on Thursday…thanks for checking in!
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Dear Joel, upon further thought, I bet that so much snow (guess 7%) fell in a short amount of time (guess a couple of hours). That it smashed itself down to only 11″ @ 11%. Hard to tell without an hour by hour snow study. Although the end result still was something amazing.
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