Snow is coming…don’t panic, go skiing!
Since when did snow become apocalyptic? On the one hand, every news station imaginable is saying that the March blizzard is upon us. Apparently I should get anxious about the morning rush hour, buy eggs at the super market, and plan to hibernate – while watching the TV news – until the snow stops. Hmmm…that’s just what they’d WANT you to do:-)
On the other hand, I think Friday and Saturday will be great days to head to the slopes. Lots of snow, and by Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, the powder should be deep enough to hide the sun-baked crusty bottom layer, making for some smooth turns.
I’m excited for this storm, and go to my latest forecast and snow totals (on the “Quick Forecast” page).
This is just a sample...hit the Quick Forecast page for all the snow totals.
But – it’s your choice. You could be excited for snow and plan to enjoy the powder, or you could bite your fingernails while nervously expecting the worst destruction imaginable. If it’s the latter, head over to Channel 7’s website, to catch a scary map of weather warnings and a tutorial on how to draw different sized arrows.
I like Channel 7’s chief Meteorologist Mike Nelson. I’ve seen him speak and know that he is a great meteorologist with an extensive knowledge of the weather. So this is not hating on Mike – just a general commentary about the absurdity of the “scary” delivery of TV weather.
Best Powder Fri PM / Sat AM
The snow will come down very heavily overnight on Thursday, and by sunrise Friday morning there will be at least a few inches for most mountains, the eastern foothills, and urban Denver areas. Snow will continue through Friday, with the deepest snow piling up along and east of the divide from Abasin to Loveland, Winter Park, Echo and Eldora. Other areas will still see snow on Friday, but it might be more of the on-and-off variety of snowfall.
Snow could get a bit heavier Friday night into Saturday morning, and this will be the really light & fluffy type of snow. Hopefully, the snow on Friday lays down a good base, and with a few more inches of the fluff on Friday night and Saturday before noon, it will be worth your while to be first in line on Saturday morning.
If you’re leaving from Denver, do your best to get out of town Thursday night. Roads on Friday morning could be bad, then turn just wet/slushy during the day, and get icier by Friday night. With fresh snow in the mountains and in people’s backyards around Denver, there is sure to be a surge in traffic on Saturday morning…don’t get caught!
Cold Front, Upslope, & Midnight Surprise
This storm is coming in multiple pieces. It is not Colorado’s typical springtime snowstorm, with feet of heavy, wet snow around Denver and little in the western mountains. Instead, this storm is from the north with colder air, fluffy snow, and will hit most of the state.
1st Grade Intelligence
I talked with another group of “Cloud Experts” this morning – cloud experts in the 1st grade, that is. This group in the Cherry Creek school district was awesome, and asked some great questions:
“How is hail formed?”
“When planes fly into a hurricane, and how dangerous is it?”
“Are we going to have enough snow to have school canceled on Friday?”
Actually, the last question was not asked, but I know it was on their minds:-) My reply? “It’ll be snowing when you wake up on Friday, but I’m not the district superintendent.” I think they’re still excited to play in the snow…
Thanks Joel….you do a great job.
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 18th, 2010 at 12:52 PM
Thanks for reading!
[Reply]
Perfect! Got one ticket left of my Loveland 4 pack.
[Reply]
Lookin good. Loveland friday WP/Bert Saturday sounds like a plan. Love the quick forecast Joel.
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 18th, 2010 at 1:27 PM
Thanks! Shoot me an email with your contact info (joel@coloradopowderforecast.com). I might be a Loveland on Friday…
[Reply]
Joel,
Great website, very informative! I have a question, and unfortunately, it does not have to do with chasing snow. I am planning on driving to Los Angeles early tomorrow morning, leaving Boulder at around 5am. Do you think this is early enough to take the I-70 route? If not, do you think it would be a good idea to go south on 25 into New Mexico and then proceed west on 40 through NM and AZ? I know this route may take a bit longer, but I’d be willing to do it if the roads will be safer. Let me know what you think. Thanks.
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 18th, 2010 at 1:45 PM
Hmmm…good question. Leaving Boulder at 5am, you will find heavy snow all the way through Vail going west on I-70, and it’ll be snowing heavily south of Denver on I-25 going over the Palmer Divide and there will even be some snow down to the NM/CO border.
I’d say to go over I-70, as once you get west of Vail or even Glenwood, you’ll be good. I don’t want you to get stuck in traffic going over the Palmer Divide near monument…that could be terrible. Of course if the roads are just wet at 5am around Boulder/Denver and you can make it to Monument before traffic gets too bad, the roads might be tough but at least you’ll get through before cars start hitting each other. Let me know how it goes.
The best thing to do is to leave at some time tonight and head west…you’ll hit snow, but stay over between Glenwood and Grand Junction and then split early on Friday and make it to Cali!
[Reply]
as usual, awesome updates. how did someone else not do this sooner?
anyway, thanks!
[Reply]
Great site, really diggin’ it. Keep up the great work!
[Reply]
Snowmaggedon!!!!!!
[Reply]
Thanks for keeping up such a great site. NOAA is calling for very different totals for the Monarch area than you are. Is NOAA wrong?
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 18th, 2010 at 3:12 PM
The point forecast is showing 13-21″ for Monarch, while the Winter Storm Warning is for 6-16″. I am saying 6-10″. The NWS point forecasts can be a little wacky because a computer tries to make snow totals out of a map that an NWS forecaster draws. I’m still happy with my 6-10″ forecast…maybe up to a foot. 21″ seems way too high, but of course I’d love to see more snow than less.
[Reply]
skibum Reply:
March 18th, 2010 at 8:59 PM
Perfect! I always keep my expections low. That way when monarch gets 21″, I’ll be extra happy!!! That place is always underforecasted.
[Reply]
the new Quick Forecast feature looks great, very easy to read over a phone.
Thanks!
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 18th, 2010 at 4:39 PM
Great to hear!
[Reply]
Snow, snow, snow, snowtorious
[Reply]
Scary forecasts are a good thing
Wanna place bets on when I70 is gridlock/shutdown at El Rancho? I’m saying 4PM on Friday. If a scary forcast keeps just one extra person at home, it is all worth it.
BTW – HUGE fan of the site.
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 18th, 2010 at 4:40 PM
Ha! That’s an interesting prediction…let’s verify it after the storm is over.
[Reply]
Jeff Reply:
March 22nd, 2010 at 9:04 AM
I guess we were both off. I70 closed early that morning at Mt. Vernon, but open most of the day and into Saturday. WP got skunked, but east side of the FFR did well. Call it a push?
[Reply]
what about the road from denver to crested butte? think it will be particularly hairy since it’s south and the storm is coming from the north?
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 18th, 2010 at 4:41 PM
285 will not be good between Denver and Kenosha Pass. It could also be bad around the Fairplay valley. Down through Buena Vista should be OK, and I think Monarch Pass could be snowy but very passable for most of Friday and Friday night.
[Reply]
josh mishell Reply:
March 18th, 2010 at 4:43 PM
Guess we should try to leave tonight. Thanks, Joel!
[Reply]
I have not forwarded this forecast to wifey. Is it unethical to suggest that she ski with the kids sat morning (prime pow) and I take them in the afternoon?
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 18th, 2010 at 5:57 PM
Some decisions are best not posted on the internet for “wifey” to reference at a later date:-)
[Reply]
Finally the forecast i wanted to see. Eldora at the top of the snow totals. Yipee. A great spring break surprise.
[Reply]
I hate to give up a big secret, but your forecasts are the best. Also the Pikes Peak region has about 110-120% of normal snow pack and the latest storm will only boost this according to your forecast. Please remind me how to have your expertise shared with the young ones. My first graders would love to have you present for them. They get Friday off with or without the snow.
Thanks Joel
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 18th, 2010 at 9:39 PM
Thanks…and a good reminder about the Pikes Peak region! Email me at joel@coloradopowderforecast.com and we’ll set something up for your 1st graders!
[Reply]
Great job at my wife’s classroom. The kids loved it and I wanted to ask if the “working world will have a snow day tomorrow” but I bet not! Loveland was so-so today with a lot of sun crust and windblown crap. Thanks again and keep up the great work!
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 18th, 2010 at 9:40 PM
Hopefully Loveland improves with the overnight and morning pow, as that’s where I’m headed on my “adult snow day” on Friday! I had a great time at your wife’s 1st grade class!
[Reply]
how does eldo look on sat.?
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 19th, 2010 at 2:26 PM
Good…probably 10-12″ storm total…6″ by noonish on Friday.
[Reply]
8 am with inches on the deck here in Aspen
[Reply]
ted mahon Reply:
March 19th, 2010 at 7:21 AM
“Four” inches, that is.
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 19th, 2010 at 2:26 PM
Thanks Ted – looks like a few more inches Friday afternoon, which should make for a good Sat AM!
[Reply]
Surprisingly woke up to no new snow this morning in Frisco, started pretty heavy around 8am.
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 19th, 2010 at 2:27 PM
Yup – the cold front came through a bit late, but that’s what caused the heavier burst of snow early in the AM.
[Reply]
The return of “Snowtorious BIG” (back from the East Coast earlier this year), or is this “SnoPac Shakur”? (I knew he wasn’t really dead) Lol
[Reply]
how do snow totals in winter park look?
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 19th, 2010 at 2:30 PM
Not so hot. “Near” the divide resorts of Abasin, Loveland, and Winter Park never really got into the heavier snow. The moist upslope flow that is giving 12-18″ of snow in the foothills between about 7-9k feet is not quite making it up to the higher resorts at 10-12k. Looks like 3-6″ has fallen already with a few more inches tonight.
[Reply]
Thanks for the update Joel. Might change my plans based up on that..
[Reply]
Hey Joel,
Saw these possible big snow totals so booked a flight tonight into Denver tonight. Skiing tomorrow (Saturday) and Sunday… Would you recommend we plan on hitting Loveland or Eldora for max freshies and depth? Other than those two resorts, who else will have the highest snow totals East of Frisco?
Thanks for this great resource you created here!
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 19th, 2010 at 3:35 PM
Hit up Eldora as they will likely have more than Loveland on the Sat AM report (10-12″ vs. 3-6″ is my guess). Should be fun up there and they got more than the other Summit Co. resorts. I don’t think Winter Park will report a big number Sat AM, but watch out for that as well.
[Reply]
Winter Park update – I was coaching all day here & there wasn’t much accumulation. Lot of wind, very cold. Snow was pretty bad. 3″ would be a generous estimate.
The sun is acually out now and there is a mild-decent wind at the base, more gusty than steady. 21F @ the base.
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 19th, 2010 at 4:12 PM
Thanks for the report…too bad it’s not a deeper report. The upslope just never really got up to the higher elevations. I just updated my Quick Forecast to reflect the far lowered amounts…
[Reply]
Joel, I see you have some pretty high totals forecast for Beaver Creek. What are you thinking?
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 19th, 2010 at 4:51 PM
Beaver Creek reported 11″ at around 1pm this afternoon at the top Patrol HQ. Another few inches this afternoon and tonight, and 10-16″ across the mountain seems reasonable as a storm total. However, much of the snow fell before close on Friday, so you’ll have to work to find some of the untouched goodness…
[Reply]
Been in Breck all day (not skiing), but only maybe a half inch accumulation here. Can see the ski mountain, so I’m guessing the number there will be pretty low in the morning. May need to head to BC in the a.m., what did Vail get today?
[Reply]
Beaver Creek?!! It is almost like meteorology is an incredibly difficult “science” with more variables in play than are possibly calculable.
It truly takes a brave soul to take on this challenge and boldly predict actual snow totals for specific ski area up to 7 days ahead of time.
A couple things I know for sure:
1) Mother Nature will always humble measly humans
2) I am a dedicated fan of this site
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 22nd, 2010 at 10:09 AM
Yes…it’s always a challenge, which is part of the fun! Thanks for being a fan!
[Reply]
Eldora fantastic today; perhaps close to a foot fell during the day, with E/NE breeze occasionally, so tracks were being covered on many slopes.
That’s after arriving A Basin 8:45 am Fri to see essentially no new snow on the ground, but ample flakes flying sideways in a 30+ mph wind. Glad we retreated to Boulder County for an excellent (and fairly empty) day at the local mtn.
Backyard in Boulder? Over a foot on the grass.
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 22nd, 2010 at 10:10 AM
Glad to hear Eldora worked. The resorts along the divide definitely missed out…
[Reply]
I had 4 inches on my deck this morning. And then we had brutal NE winds all day long that pretty much removed any chances of skiing pow this weekend in Steamboat. But Lyrics Born is playing for free at the mountain tomorrow.
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 22nd, 2010 at 10:10 AM
Went with Steamboat Powder Cats on Saturday…it actually didn’t suck, even with the high winds removing all snow on the previous day. Posting a report in a few hours…
[Reply]
Great 3 day weekend of skiing in the Vail area. Friday, woke up to a solid 6-8, of not so fluffy snow blanketing the front side. Back bowls and blue sky were closed, other than Sun Down and Sun up bowl, which were rather wind blown due to strong E winds. Found some great tree runs all afternoon though. Saturday was excellent back in blue sky, and front side groomers soft and playful. Yesterday was a great day at Beaver Creek, soft turns, great mogul runs, and warm air all made for a great day. everything except for extremley loud and obnoxious country music at outdoor patio at bottom of centenial chair. Great 3 days!
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 22nd, 2010 at 10:11 AM
Excellent…thanks for the report! Spring skiing indeed…gotta know where to look for the soft pow after the south facing stuff gets baked!
[Reply]
Hey Joel,
Any hope for a good powder day this week?
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 22nd, 2010 at 10:12 AM
Best shot is the eastern mountains again, on Wednesday. I updated the “Quick Forecast” this Monday morning. Another more state-wide storm Friday night into Saturday.
[Reply]
I was at Eldora on Saturday and it was a beautiful blue bird day. They had a good amount of snow down in Moose and Bryan glade but Corona was quickly chewed up and wind blown.
I’m headed down to Monarch on Tuesday and Crested Butte for Wednesday…any estimates on snow totals there yet with this next storm?
[Reply]
Joel Gratz Reply:
March 22nd, 2010 at 10:13 AM
I skied Eldora on Sunday…even the leftovers were soft and playful…really fun, actually! Monarch and CB could get a few inches Tues midday through Wed midday, but I am not optimistic on big snow totals. I have an update in the “Quick Forecast” section.
[Reply]