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There is only one thing worse than getting very little snow when the forecast called for nearly a foot: When you made the forecast.
This was my sad reality as I drove up to Steamboat on Saturday morning. My forecast was wrong (2-4″ instead of 8-12″), but the actual snow totals didn’t even matter. Any new snow that fell was blown to Utah by hurricane-force winds from the east.
Great setup to go cat skiing, huh?
Needless to say, I was pretty bummed, but I had a shred of hope that on a bluebird, warm, windless day, at least we would find one or two decent runs. Honestly though, I had no expectations of leaving Steamboat later that day with a smile.
Great Experience at Steamboat Powdercats
It’s two-minute video time, which is the best way to show why I actually had an amazing time – far better than I expected – at Steamboat Powdercats on Saturday.
This was my first time cat skiing, and I’m addicted. Here’s why:
- No parking hassles. No rushing to beat lift lines. No losing friends all over the mountain.
- Plenty of runs (13) in good, playful terrain.
- Getting to meet other people like you – addicted to skiing good snow.
- Groups set by ability level. We never had to wait for stragglers.
- Feeling relaxed, well fed, and happy the whole day. The relaxation is probably like going to a spa (I’ve never been), except you get to ski instead of put some vegetable-based mask on your face.
- It isn’t cheap (usually around $300-400/day), but completely worth it since our ski passes in Colorado are generally pretty good deals, leaving some money to treat yourself to a 1st-class experience. The people at Steamboat Powdercats also said they have an end-of-season special to save a few bucks (15-20%).
- The terrain on Buff Pass (where we skied) can be somewhat short (500-750 vertical feet per run is my guess), but it is VERY playful and fun in a “I’m not going to die” kinda way.
A few people at Steamboat Powdercats told me the same thing: Over 70% of customers come back. I spoke to a few customers who come back three or four times per season. This speaks volumes about the fun and value of cat skiing, as well as the professionalism of Steamboat Powdercats. Truly, it was a first-rate day … and there wasn’t even deep pow. I can’t image how much fun it could be with 1-2 feet of blower…
[Disclaimer: Steamboat Powdercats invited me to ski with them in exchange for writing this review. This positive review is wholly truthful, as I will always be honest about my experiences, both good and bad. This is also the first cat skiing experience of my life, so while I had a 1st class time, I cannot compare it to other operations.]
The snowstorm that wasn’t (for some)
My last forecast worked out pretty well for some areas, and terribly for others. In general, the storm on Friday (March 19th) was over-forecast for many mountains. In hindsight, the reason is pretty obvious. The wind direction at mountain-top level was from the east, which is an unfavorable orographic direction for Steamboat, Summit Co., and some other areas in central Colorado. Also, the upslope (from the east) winds were strong between about 5,000ft and 10,000ft which gave Echo and Eldora some big totals, but these winds lacked the moisture needed to produce heavy snow above about 10,000ft. This is why Winter Park, Loveland, and Abasin only saw a few wind-blown inches.
Every blown forecast makes the next forecast better, however. I’ve learned a good lesson, and although snowstorms will always be tricky to forecast, it’s helpful to learn from past mistakes!
Actual snow totals and my initial forecast (made on Thursday, March 18th) is below.
| RESORT | TOTAL | FORECAT RANGE 3/18/2010 |
| Echo | 17.0 | 10-15 |
| Aspen Highlands | 13.0 | 4-8 |
| Aspen Mountain | 13.0 | 4-8 |
| Buttermilk | 12.0 | 4-8 |
| Powderhorn | 12.0 | 5-10 |
| Snowmass | 12.0 | 4-8 |
| Eldora | 11.0 | 10-15 |
| Silverton | 11.0 | 6-10 |
| Telluride | 11.0 | 6-10 |
| Beaver Creek | 10.0 | 4-8 |
| Vail | 10.0 | 6-10 |
| Wolf Creek | 9.0 | 4-8 |
| Cooper | 7.0 | 4-8 |
| Crested Butte | 7.0 | 3-6 |
| Sunlight | 7.0 | 4-8 |
| Monarch | 6.0 | 6-10 |
| Loveland | 4.0 | 8-12 |
| Breckenridge | 3.0 | 6-10 |
| Copper | 3.0 | 6-10 |
| Abasin | 2.0 | 8-12 |
| Steamboat | 2.0 | 8-12 |
| Durango | 1.0 | 3-6 |
| Keystone | 1.0 | 6-10 |
| Winter Park | 1.0 | 10-15 |
Joel,
Nice to meet you in person on Saturday at SPC. I agree, they run a first class operation! In a year when the storms can be hit or miss, I am amazed at the fresh lines that they can find. It is a testament to the knowledge of the guides. These guys and gals always work very hard to put their skiers into good snow. In a year when the goods can’t be gotten at a ski area, or the usual backcountry stashes are chewed up (read Berthoud Pass), a good guide service is the best bet! And, no, they didn’t pay me to say this. I’m a believer and it sounds like you are too!
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 22nd, 2010 at 3:12 PM
Nice to meet you as well – funny who you can run into these days:-)
I am definitely a believer…I truly had my hopes down as I drove to Steamboat Saturday morning, but I couldn’t have been happier with the overall Steamboat Powdercats experience as I drove away in the evening. It wasn’t a deep blower day, but the fun terrain, good snow, and relaxing atmosphere (not fighting for pow) are so refreshing compared to the usual resort or popular backcountry experience. Wish I could do it every week!
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Jim Grew Reply:
March 22nd, 2010 at 4:44 PM
Joel: What a surprise to read your story today when I visited your site! I was one of the other five guests on Saturday and of course concur with your assessment. As you gathered, I am an insane powdercat skier and my operation of choice is SPC. In fact, this is the winter I chose to devote myself to SPC and ski with them as many days as I could afford. Would that I had chosen a winter with a greater snowpack; but, as you wrote, they have an uncommon ability to find fresh tracks no matter the weather. I even joined them the day before during the actual windstorm that closed the resort the entire day and we found some superb snow. We might very well have been the only skiers in Routt County that day. Jim
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Chris Rapp Reply:
March 22nd, 2010 at 5:02 PM
Joel,
It was a lot of fun skiing with you. We had a great time. Other than some misplaced clothing the whole day ran like clockwork. Powdercats did a great job finding where the snow was and making all the runs fun. A good group of people. On a side note once the sun came out on Sunday Steamboat became a lot of fun to ski. Looking forward to watching your report…
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Guess we need to go slide some rails at Echo Joel. They seem to be getting all of the snow lately. Thursday morning?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 22nd, 2010 at 5:41 PM
Uh, I think constructing a rail in your backyard and sliding that would be cheaper. I’ll bring the steel.
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Highlands was amazing on Saturday. The bowl is in the best shape its been in all year.
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See what I mean…
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J Moore Reply:
March 23rd, 2010 at 5:49 AM
What happened at Highlands on Saturday? I was at Aspen Mtn Sunday and heard about Temerity being broken down with skiers on the lift on Saturday (those stranded were given a $25 meal voucher), and the Bowl closing! Sunday we couldn’t see any one skiing on the Bowl from the top of Ajax.
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Joel,
I’ve been eagerly tuning into your forecasts for the past few months. For the most part, you’ve been spot on, so thanks for your hard work.
What do you think about adding a few of the CO backcountry areas to your forecast? As a “front ranger”, I’d love to know what you think will happen in RMNP (east side vs. west side?) and Cameron and Berthoud Passes.
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 22nd, 2010 at 5:45 PM
Good thoughts. I’ve stayed away from doing backcountry forecasts for no real reason…but you can infer Berthoud Pass from the Winter Park forecast, and RMNP east side and Cameron Pass from the Eldora forecast. This Tue/Wed storm will affect the east sides of the passes far more than the west sides.
At this point, I’m probably not going to add in additional areas just to keep the the “Quick Forecast” page a bit cleaner, and because my backcountry forecasts would be similar to the resorts I listed:
Berthoud = Winter Park
Cameron, RMNP = Eldora
Of course there can be large differences between the resorts and the “nearby” pass, but the it should be close enough.
If you go out and find some surprises in the backcountry, please chime in on the comments. Thanks!
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My experience at CP has been that it’s more like Steamboat or Winter Park when the storms are from the west and like Eldora for the more upslope storms. Skiing an east-facing slope at about 10,500 ft, I’d say there was 6-8″ of new snow.
I don’t have as much experience with RMNP, but suspect the western side gets the westerly storms and the east side the upslopes.
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Heading to Crested Butte for the Grand Traverse. Any insights into weather trends in the Elk Mountains between CB and Aspen would be a great help.
Thanks!
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 23rd, 2010 at 11:41 AM
Looks like snow Friday afternoon through midday Saturday … perhaps 3-6″. It should start clearing by Saturday evening and be clear into Sunday. I think the traverse is Fri/Sat, and if so, the odd weather of past years will rear its head again!
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Not exactly a powder question, but….
Do you expect the snow on Fri/Sat to hit lower elevations? More specifically, should we avoid committing to driving from Boulder to Denver and back on Sat afternoon/evening?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 23rd, 2010 at 9:22 AM
Probably some snow down low, but it won’t be a big storm, so driving should be decent/OK.
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I struggled with this forecast from the skier side, as I was pretty skeptical about the usually lame-for-snow resorts were looking to get a prime dump. I weighted the options and went with the one that always delivers, Wolf Creek! It was an awesome choice, and it’s one of the only places in Colorado that I don’t have to fight to find snow. I had fresh tracks on every run from 8-5! Here’s the LAST run of the day.
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 26th, 2010 at 5:03 PM
Sorry your comment came through so late – I have no idea what happened. Can you try uploading the pic from Wolf again? Thanks!
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Well, The FR certainly got their due last night Joel!
How are things looking for Wolfie this weekend? Epic, 3-4 feet of blower right?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 24th, 2010 at 8:29 PM
Sadly, no. Maybe some inches, but likely well less than double digits. Best snow will be in the central mountains and northwest San Juans (Telluride, Silverton).
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Eldora got pounded. Best day of the year. Why did they get so much more than you predicted?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 24th, 2010 at 9:32 PM
Yes they did get pounded. I did some backcountry about 15 miles north in Indian Peaks and the 18-24″ was awesome.
Eldora got almost twice as much snow as last Friday’s storm (and my prediction) because of slightly deeper upslope winds. There were winds from the east from the surface all the way to about 20,000ft on Tuesday night, versus only up to about 15,000ft last Friday. The more upslope flow (wind from the east higher up into the atmosphere), the more moisture, lift, and SNOW you can get in the higher terrain.
This storm did it right and a good bit of that 20″ likely fell in just a few hours Tuesday evening.
I hate to put out predictions of “20 inches” because it is VERY rare that 20″ will actually fall in one day in Colorado…like once per season (as you said). It takes a lot of variables coming together PERFECTLY to produce 20″ in <=24 hrs. So, I was a little conservative, and we were all happier than expected when it just kept snowing.
The National Weather Service and The Weather Channel both under predicted Eldora’s snows as well. CAIC had a correct range (11-25), but CAIC also way over forecast snow totals for all other areas in the state. Snow forecasting is a hard game to win consistently…
Glad you took a sick day!
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