March is shaping up just like a typical woman: Moody, but that’s to be expected.
The weather over the last week has been moody indeed, as I’ve been on my road bike in warm sunshine and then skied deep powder the next day. Gotta love it!
We have one more storm coming on Friday and Friday night, which will spread the deep snow mostly across the western mountains (though Echo/Eldora and other eastern mountains could also get another round a decent pow).
After this next storm, it’ll be beer drinking, spring skiing, and road biking weather until next Thursday, when a BIG storm will arrive just in time for April Fools.
Keep reading for more about Friday’s storm, the secret that Loveland keeps above the tunnel, and a recap about the last storm that shut down I-70 with 4-6 inch per hour snowfall and brought about 2 feet to the eastern slopes.
Next Storm? Head West!
There she is … the next in a series of moody March storms. The image shows the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere (blue/green = more moisture), and the storm of interest is actually the “leaning U” shape to the west of California. As this “U” moves toward Colorado, it will lift the moist air ahead of it and produce a good deal of snow for the state.
A detailed breakdown of the storm is located on my “Quick Forecast” page, which I will update if anything changes with the current forecast. Unlike the last two storms that brought the heaviest accumulations EAST of the divide, this storm should bring substantial (up to a foot) accumulations to many mountains west of the divide. There is about a 50/50 chance (love it when meteorologists say that!) that this storm could produce ~6 hours of upslope winds (from the east) that once again bring decent snow to Echo & Eldora. If this does not happen, then my snow totals for these two mountains will be too high…
A strong wind from the north should hit the I-70 area Friday afternoon and Friday night, which favors Summit Co., Winter Park, and Loveland with heavier snow. Loveland, you say? I drive under it on my way to other places. Not so fast…
Loveland’s Surprise
Yes, I have been lacking some love in my life. Hi. I’m Joel Gratz. And I’ve never skied at Loveland. Rather than persecute me, just trust me that this place has A LOT to offer. I arrived last Friday morning to see upslope flow that wasn’t quite strong enough to bring the heavy snow up to 11-13,000ft. Conditions were a “bit” choppy to say the least, with a few inches over some hard pack. But looking around, the terrain choices were impressive.
Skier: Joel Gratz. Photographer: Caleb Wray. 3/19/2010
The terrain behind me shows just a glimpse of what lies above the tunnel. There are plenty of hike-to choices and a wide variety of stuff above treeline:
Basically, Loveland would rock on a powder day, and there are a few more coming up in the next 10 days. The first of which – on Saturday – might be worth a trip. The ski area maintains an active Facebook page with very recent pictures, especially when there’s powder!
20″ at Eldora?! Storm recap.
I sampled some (low angle) backcountry about 15 miles north of Eldora on Wednesday. And yes, the 18-24″ skied very well, despite it being on the heavier side. And a big thanks to the plow operators who made it a piece of cake to get to the trailhead! Want to see the video from this expedition? Hold your horses…I’ll post it next week when the state is high and dry.
I had to “up” my snow forecast on Tuesday afternoon (in the middle of the storm), as very moist air from the south wrapped around the storm and gave a few hours of heavy snow to the I-70 corridor west of the divide. If the center of the storm was 50 miles further north or south, the snow totals would look vastly different.
East of the divide, the possibility definitely existed for Eldora and Echo to see 1-2 FEET of powder, but my initial forecast was more conservative – up to about a foot.
A reader asked me why these resorts got so much more than I forecast. The simple answer is that I have a hard time forecasting 20″ of snow, because this much rarely falls in any 24 hour time period in Colorado. It can definitely happen, and it takes everything to come together perfectly in the atmosphere. The actual snow totals for this storm (for all of Colorado) were on the very low end of the ranges by CAIC and the National Weather Service. While I attempt to provide a very accurate forecast, I also like to stay a little conservative – because very few people will complain if more snow falls than is forecast!
The forecast shown below is after I updated it mid-storm. My previous forecast was much lower for some areas.
| RESORT | TOTAL | FORECAST RANGE 3/23/2010 |
| Eldora | 20 | 11-23 |
| Echo | 16 | 11-23 |
| Powderhorn | 10 | 3-7 |
| Breckenridge | 8 | 4-11 |
| Monarch | 8 | 4-10 |
| Copper | 7 | 8-12 |
| Loveland | 7 | 5-11 |
| Aspen | 6 | 3-8 |
| Abasin | 5 | 5-11 |
| Keystone | 5 | 4-11 |
| Vail | 5 | 4-11 |
| Beaver Creek | 5 | 4-11 |
| Winter Park | 5 | 6-13 |
| Sunlight | 5 | 6-9 |
| Steamboat | 4.5 | 2-5 |
| Cooper | 4 | 3-9 |
| Silverton | 4 | 6-12 |
| Telluride | 3 | 6-12 |
| Crested Butte | 1 | 2-6 |
| Wolf Creek | 1 | 4-9 |
| Durango | 0 | 0 – 2 |
Thanks for the update Joel. With any luck this next BIG system you forecast for next week comes from the NW!
Any ideas or is it too early to tell if its trending north or will be digging south. I am in the Vail area so news of a big dump, even with lower confidence is certainly exciting!
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 25th, 2010 at 3:17 PM
Looks like the storm will hit everyone. Initially, it will hit the southwest with heavy snow. Then as it moves through, the winds will come from the northwest and favor the central/northern mountains. The east slopes may get in on some upslope, too. We’ll see … the storm looks big enough to make everyone happy.
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Hi joel, you mentioned a big storm next thursday ? I will be coming over from England next thursday , how will this storm effect steamboat and what are conditions like at the moment?
Ollie
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 25th, 2010 at 3:21 PM
Conditions are spring-like at Steamboat…warm enough by midday and afternoon to make the snow soft, though there hasn’t been much fresh snow for the last few weeks.
Steamboat should get some snow Fri/Sat, then it will be warm again until you arrive. The big storm coming next Thurs will initially put down the heaviest snow away from Steamboat, but snow should come to the ‘boat Fri/Sat (still a long way out at this point).
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Never dislike a storm that looks like Bucephalus riding in… that, or giant squid attack. So, more sweet graphics please! (and thank you).
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 25th, 2010 at 8:50 PM
Excellent mythology reference … more graphics on the way!
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what an awesome site! I grew up boarding at Loveland. Out of all the places I have been, my favorite runs are still some of the steep bowls from the ridge at Loveland.
Hopefully Keystone will get some big snow for saturday, I got a summit pass now and can’t bring myself to buy a lift ticket. I think it’s summit counties turn for a giant dump!
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 26th, 2010 at 4:57 PM
Hoping that the northerly flow overnight (Friday into Saturday) will help out Keystone…even through midday Saturday, perhaps.
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What? No responses to the lead in? Don’t the gals follow your posts? Or is the lack of response an assumed acknowledgment of your accuracy on something beside where the next dump will occur?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 26th, 2010 at 4:59 PM
I plead the fifth, but thanks for noticing the deafening silence!
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Is this thing going upslope? It’s coming down a few inches an hour up here in Ned.
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 26th, 2010 at 5:01 PM
Yup…this is the few hours of upslope flow. Shouldn’t last more than another hour(ish), but I’m happy to hear it was good for a few inches!
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Does it look like snow will hang around the divide tonight (berthoud and loveland) or is it staying west?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 26th, 2010 at 7:56 PM
Both … looks like Grand Mesa & Northern San Juans do well overnight, as should Summit Co. and the divide areas. Snowing pretty good right now in Summit Co. … tough to say if it will make it further east to Berthoud, though it seems like it should…
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Vail was AMAZING today! Way more than the 10 inches reported. In the bowls it was easily a foot and a half. It continued to dump ALL DAY! I can’t wait for another pow day tomorrow!
We’re headed to Aspen 6-9…any snow in their future??? Thanks, Joel!
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 27th, 2010 at 8:54 PM
Glad you had a blast at Vail! Looks like three storms coming in early March, and Aspen should get some snow out of each storm. The first storm is April 1-3, the next is April 5-7, and maybe another one after that. It’s tough to time each storm exactly, but it does look like you’ll have some good snow for your trip.
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There was definitely a ton of snow in Vail this last weekend. Not the deepest of the year, but it was definitely the highest quality powder for the year – felt like a blower January dump. This made it my top day for the year when combined with the lack of people on the hill.
They opened Blue Sky at 9:15 instead of the advertised 10:30 so our group got 5 runs in before we even had to pause before getting on the chair. 14 runs of virgin untracked powder from knee to waist by the end of the day.
Not a lot of people out there on Sunday either. With the bluebird day, I hit the open bowl stashes all morning until it got heavier around 11am – I never get to do that due to lines! Got 16 runs in, half virgin, half chop, by the end of the day. Legs are toast.
What a weekend! Hope you got out there!
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 29th, 2010 at 11:11 AM
Great report, Brian! From everything I heard, Saturday was an awesome day to be at Vail. I was skiing backcountry that day, but headed to Vail on Sunday to ski some leftovers in the morning and enjoy the warm sun in the afternoon. A great late-season weekend…
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Highlands and snowmass were great last weekend… As with vail, powder was surprisingly winterlike! Here’s just a brief shot from snowmass on sat.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkxlHqVwdbk
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 30th, 2010 at 1:16 PM
Excellent to see some video…helps to know what the snow was really like, and it looked fun!
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What do you think about getting from Boulder to South Fork or Pagosa Springs on Wed evening?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 30th, 2010 at 1:17 PM
That would be a good time to go. Earlier the better. Right now, it looks like the heavy snow could hold off for Wolf Creek Pass until closer to midnight on Wednesday night. Roads from Boulder down to South Fork should be fine/dry on Wed night.
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News 2 said this latest storm is mostly going to hit western slope areas. How’s it look from your perspective for Winter Park?
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Joel Gratz Reply:
March 31st, 2010 at 9:02 AM
Winter Park won’t be the winner, but they should do OK later on Thursday and Thursday night (maybe even into Friday morning). My quick forecast (http://www.coloradopowderforecast.com/quick-forecast/) for WP is 4-10″, which is quite a wide range indeed, but is honest as it’s tough to figure out exactly how much moisture will be left once this storm starts moving out on Thursday night.
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