Correct = right on with the forecast.

Pretty Good = the intent of the forecast was correct (snow, sun, wind, etc), but maybe things were a little different than expected (more or less snow, sun, wind, etc).

Wrong = dammit, the forecast was terrible.  Watcha gonna do?

Accuracy for 2009-2010

Click here to download a spreadsheet (.xls) of my 2009-2010 accuracy.

Seasonal Accuracy for 2008-2009

Do you believe this statement?  “I am the most accurate weather forecaster in Colorado.”

Yep – it’s a bold statement.  But I don’t know of anyone else who keeps statistics on the accuracy of their forecasts.  Since nobody can prove me wrong…I’ll consider myself the most accurate weather guy around.  Maybe this need for attention is part of my ‘OCS’ (only child syndrome)…  I have descriptions of each day’s forecast and outcome – shoot me an email if you’d like to see the details!

Here are the stats for my 168 days of forecasting during the 2008-2009 ski season in Colorado.  There is nothing fancy here.  I made the forecasts each Thursday night, and predicted weather for the next 7 days.  After those 7 days, I looked at the actual weather and ranked my forecasts:

Correct = right on with the forecast.

Pretty Good = the intent of the forecast was correct (snow, sun, wind, etc), but maybe things were a little different than expected (more or less snow, sun, wind, etc).

Wrong = dammit, the forecast was terrible.  Watcha gonna do?

Admittedly, this is not a very scientific way to assess the accuracy of the forecast.  But it’s a good start – and I invite others to start keeping track of their accuracy!

Hmmm…maybe there’s something to the old adage that “…weathermen are only 50% right…”.